Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Young Poong, PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk, Red Hawk Mining , Arras Minerals , Predictive Discovery, Chugoku Marine Paints, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Cemex SAB de CV, Giga Metals , Arrow Exploration Corp and more

• Must Asset Management, a 3% shareholder of Young Poong (000670 KS), started to go activist on the company on 5 February.
• Based on current market cap, this would represent a P/B of 0.2x using the consolidated controlling interest equity of 3.9 trillion won!
• There is some speculation that Must Asset Mgmt may form an alliance with Chairman Choi’s family as it proposed to Young Poong to recommend outside directors.

• Low free float market cap has kept PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ) out of a major global index so far.
• An increase in float recently to just above 15% could result in the inclusion of the stock in the index in February and that will trigger large passive buying.
• There is positioning in the stock, and the future stock path will depend on whether it is added to the index or not.

• Back on the 28th January, Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) launched a A$1.05/share off-market Offer for Red Hawk Mining (RHK AU), increasing to A$1.20/share if securing 75% of shares out. 
• Red Hawks has announced Fortescue now has 78%, and has bumped terms to A$1.20/share. The Offer remains subject to “no prescribed occurrences“, which should be waived by the 17th Feb.
• The Offer remains open until the 3 March. Unless extended. Fortescue intends to delist Red Hawk. 

• Since the start of 2025, Arras has released two batches of drill results from its exploration activities in Kazakhstan. Early results look very promising and the stock has reacted accordingly.
• 2025 is going to be a very busy year of newsflow for Arras with a lot of optionality to drive a further re-rating.
• Arras remains a high risk/reward junior exploration company with a market cap of only 33M USD. Arras is targeting both copper and gold.

• Predictive Discovery receives a strategic investment of $69 million from Lundeen and Zejin, leading to a 13% increase in stock price
• The funds will be used for advancing the DFS at the Bankhan gold project in Guinea and other development activities
• Predictive’s Bankan project has a 5.4 million ounce resource and a 3 million ounce reserve, with an average production profile of 269,000 ounces per annum over 12 years at an AISC of $1,100 per ounce

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• CMP’s cumulative Q3 FY03/25 sales reached JPY96.1bn, driven by marine and industrial paints, despite container paint declines.
• Operating profit increased to JPY11.6bn, with improved GPM, despite higher raw material and transportation costs.
• CMP revised its FY03/25 forecast upwards, expecting JPY130.0bn sales and JPY13.5bn net income, citing foreign exchange gains.

• Tire industry to be a collateral damage in the tariff battle  
• 91% of projected light truck tire requirement is import reliant  
• Trade balance tipping towards China and Canada  

• Given the scale of these trade flows, any imposition of tariffs by the U.S. could create significant ripple effects on Mexico’s economic growth, investment climate, and employment
• In LTM September 2024, Cemex generated ~31% of its revenues in Mexico and 31% in the U.S., while 44% of its EBITDA came from Mexico and 29% from the U.S
• The U.S. market represents a meaningful portion of Pemex’s crude exports. In 2024, the company exported 460 kbd, accounting for 57.1% of total exports and 26.5% of total production

• The Turnagain Project is one of the world’s largest undeveloped nickel-cobalt sulphide deposits, boasting a robust PFS with an NPV7% of $574M and significant leverage to rising nickel prices.
• Exploration planned for 2025 aims to identify new high-grade zones, further enhancing project economics and scalability.
• The project has a low C1 cash cost of $4.70/lb Ni (after by-product credits) and produces a high-purity concentrate.

• Following the discovery well, Arrow has drilled two new vertical wells at Alberta Llanos, effectively delineating the field.
• The AB-2 well at the far northern limit of the field encountered multiple hydrocarbon-bearing intervals with good reservoir characteristics but came in structurally lower than anticipated, resulting in sub-economic oil rates from the Carbonera sandstones.
• Additional zones can be completed at a later stage.