Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Zijin Gold, Gold, Altona Rare Earths, Crude Oil, Sayona Mining and more

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO offers investors with a bullish outlook on gold prices a timely entry into a pure play gold miner with a globally diversified asset base.
• At HKD71.59/share, Zijin Gold IPO is set to raise US$3.2 billion with cornerstone investors already committing about half the deal (US$1.6 billion).
• At current gold prices, IPO valuations leave a reasonable buffer; however, a pullback toward year-ago levels would pose significant downside.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK) ’s US$3.2 billion IPO closes tomorrow, Wednesday, September 29.
• The pure-play gold miner, backed by Zijin Mining, is priced at an EV/Reserves multiple in the top quartile of global peers.
• With high sensitivity to gold price movements, Zijin Gold offers amplified upside potential — and downside risk — versus bullion itself.

• Despite initial concerns about tariffs and policy uncertainty hurting global economy, many major metals have seen significant price gains this year
• Tariffs have been implemented, but manufacturers have absorbed costs in margins rather than passing them on to consumers
• Despite signs of economic strain in recent data, commodity prices remain strong due to US dollar weakness making commodities more affordable for importing countries

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Altona Rare Earths is the successor to Altona Energy, which listed on AIM in 2005.
• A new management team has wisely shifted the focus to critical minerals and decided to focus on the Monte Muambe Rare Earth Project, as it could quickly move into production.
• Altona is being led by Africa-based CEO Cédric Simonet, who has an in-depth knowledge of the continent’s resources projects and is a trained geologist.

• Crude oil futures opened the week slightly firmer as traders continued to monitor disruptions to Russian flows amid ongoing attacks against infrastructure and sanctions threats.
• Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $67.22/b (0735 BST) versus Friday’s settle of $66.68/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at  $62.90/b against a previous close of $62.40/b.
• The prospect of tighter measures against Moscow was seen increasing with European leaders pushing for a wider rollout, including secondary tariffs.

• Quality-Weighted upside: IPO priced at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~US$24bn EV) but forward valuation points to ~US$38.5bn EV (~HK$121/sh), implying ~70% upside at spot gold.
• Portfolio strength: Over 55% of 2027E EBITDA is anchored in world-class assets (Ghana, Buriticá, Raygorodok), positioning Zijin ahead of peers that deliver flat growth.
• Stronger case than Sep 19 preview: incorporates the reserves uplift (~35 Moz vs. ~27 Moz), clearer project ramps, confirmed cornerstone demand, and new angles via asset benchmarking and quality-weighted valuation.

Created through a merger of equals between Sayona Mining and Piedmont Lithium, Elevra Lithium (ELV) provides unparalleled exposure to the North American hard rock lithium market. The largest regional pure play spodumene producer, Elevra has a strong pipeline of advanced development projects, offering flexible growth, and is well positioned to benefit from the growing localisation of the lithium supply chain in the US. Trading at a large discount to peers on sales multiples, we see the potential for a meaningful value uplift once the company achieves profitability.

• Gold’s current low-volatility phase, following its ascent to all-time highs, presents a strategic vol trading opportunity. This environment is characterized by steady gains and reduced expected downside.
• Recent market trends, including investor and institutional support levels, suggest that strategies designed to profit from time decay could be beneficial, noting the stability of physical flows, contained intraday volatility.
• While a short-term trading regime focused on range consolidation is indicated, potential risks from geopolitical shifts or unexpected central bank communications could quickly reprice gold’s volatility.