In today’s briefing:
- Asian Equities: Growth at Reasonable Price After This Dislocation
- Money Forward (3994) | SaaS Is Slowing, But So Is the Price
- Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ) – Piping Hot
- Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain
- Universal Vision Biotechnology (3218 TT): There Are Plenty of Near-Term Pain Points
- Amgen’s Big Bet on Obesity: Is This the Pharma Giant’s Next Breakout Moment?
- Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion
- General Motors vs. The Tariff Tsunami: Can The Auto Giant Stay In Gear?
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Emperor Group’s 62-home project in Sai Ying Pun.
- Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q1
Asian Equities: Growth at Reasonable Price After This Dislocation
- Rapid changes in US’s tariff policies have driven sharp equity volatility. For instance, since March third week, HSI’s forward PE declined from 11.1x to 9.1x and bounced back to 9.5x.
- Such severe volatility has opened up interesting investment opportunities in Asia. Screening on strong EPS growth forecasts, high ROE, low PEG, and low debt-equity, we come up with 35 stocks.
- Our stocks are from China (15), HK (8), Korea (4), India (4), Taiwan (2). Notably, TSMC, SK Hynix, Wuxi AppTec, Galaxy Entertainment, ZTO Express, M&M Finance, Muthoot Finance, Muangthai Capital.
Money Forward (3994) | SaaS Is Slowing, But So Is the Price
- Q1 revenue and EBITDA missed expectations, with slowing growth in key business segment and corporate customer adds.
- Macroeconomic risks, including US tariffs, may be weighing on business confidence and new customer acquisition.
- Valuation now looks attractive, trading at a steep discount to global peers despite similar fundamentals.
Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ) – Piping Hot
- Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ) is Indonesia’s largest steel pipe manufacturer with over 2,000 customers and exposure across diverse sectors, including infrastructure, autos, and Oil & Gas.
- The company looks set to book strong growth in revenues and profits over the next 3 years, driven by increased capacity and improving product mix towards higher value products.
- SPINDO has been shifting towards longer duration funding and reducing interest costs. Valuations are attractive on a 3x FY2025E PER, with a forecast dividend yield of 5%.
Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain
- We interact with our dealer network representing Asian Paints (APNT IN) and Birla Opus Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) dealers with an objective to understand the current operating environment.
- Aggression in a slow-moving market will result in short-term market share gains for players like Birla Opus.
- While Asian Paints (APNT IN) may appear to lose market share, we believe this would be transient in nature.
Universal Vision Biotechnology (3218 TT): There Are Plenty of Near-Term Pain Points
- Universal Vision Biotechnology (3218 TT) is struggling with expansion plans, decelerated revenue growth, and unfavorable revenue mix. 2024 revenue growth of 4% is significant deterioration from 17% reported in 2023.
- China business remained challenging. In 2024, revenue from China 22% YoY to NT$594M. Both the number of partnered hospitals and self-operated clinics/hospitals in China decreased during 2024.
- Through the first three months of 2025, revenue growth has not shown any sign of improvement. 1Q25 revenue grew just 5% YoY to NT$1,123M.
Amgen’s Big Bet on Obesity: Is This the Pharma Giant’s Next Breakout Moment?
- Amgen is rapidly positioning itself as a formidable player in the obesity drug market, a sector that has witnessed explosive growth due to the popularity of GLP-1 based therapies from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
- The company’s investigational drug MariTide is generating significant interest following promising Phase II results showing up to 20% weight loss with monthly dosing.
- With two Phase III trials now underway—targeting both diabetic and non-diabetic patients—Amgen is accelerating its strategy to gain a slice of what analysts forecast to be a $100 billion market by 2030.
Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion
- SAIL has been a consistent under-performer despite having huge iron ore reserves, multi-location steel plants and wide product spectrum and exclusive sales to Indian Railways
- Legacy plants, ageing manpower and operational inefficiencies have resulted in slower growth compared to peers and a significant loss in overall market share, high inventories and single digit RoEs
- SAIL trades at 0.8x P/B, in line with history, but weak volume visibility and elevated debt warrant a deeper discount—0.6x book better reflects risk-reward, in our view.
General Motors vs. The Tariff Tsunami: Can The Auto Giant Stay In Gear?
- General Motors is facing turbulent headwinds in 2025, driven primarily by a resurgent trade war between the U.S. and Canada.
- The Detroit automaker recently suspended production at its BrightDrop electric vehicle (EV) plant in Ingersoll, Ontario, triggering nearly 500 indefinite layoffs and marking a significant blow to Canada’s already struggling auto sector.
- This move comes amid the fallout from President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on foreign-made cars, which has forced Canada to retaliate with its own 25% duties on U.S.-built vehicles.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Emperor Group’s 62-home project in Sai Ying Pun.
- Emperor Group is consolidating a site in Sai Ying Pun for a 62-home project in Hong Kong, promising a significant development.
- EQT has appointed a former KKR executive to take charge of their real estate operations in Japan, signaling a strategic move.
- A prominent mainland tycoon has sold a condo in The Peak for $66 million, marking a significant transaction in the luxury property market.
Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: 2025-Q1
- Q1 was challenging. However, in the two weeks since Mar 31, the world has changed, owing to an intense realignment of global trade policies.
- This has swiftly aligned markets more with Upslope’s portfolio and approach.
- April-to-date performance1 has been strong (approx. +7%), leaving the Fund +2% YTD (vs. -12% for the S&P Midcap 400).
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