In today’s briefing:
- HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener July 2025: August 1st Deadline Approaches
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount
- Money Forward (3994) | Mid-Sized Bets Start Paying Off
- Jensen Went to the White House, and to China
- Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals
- The Beat Ideas: LIC Housing Finance- RoA at Decade High, Valuation Near Lows?
- Eli Lilly’s Obesity Pill For The Masses Could Flip The $150 Billion Market on Its Head!
- Can Ola Electric Stage a Strong Comeback? Analyzing Its Current Performance & Future Potential
- Toumei (4439 JP): Q3 FY08/25 flash update
- Hong Kong Office Market: Persistent Vacancy and Rental Pressure – SHORT Champion REIT 2778 HK
HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener July 2025: August 1st Deadline Approaches
- The August 1st deadline is approaching, and it seems a bit unclear whether a deal with Vietnam has been reached on a 20% tariff or something lower.
- With no formal agreement and just Trump’s Truth Social account as a reference, uncertainty looms. For HK-listed companies, the understanding is that they will pass on tariffs to their customers.
- We summarize this in our call with Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) following the results. We also provide updates for Pacific Textiles (1382 HK) and other names.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount
- TSMC: +20.6% Premium; FY2Q25 Results This Week a Key Catalyst
- UMC: 0.0% Premium (Parity); Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
- ASE: -0.8% Discount; Historically Rare Discount, Long the ADR Spread
Money Forward (3994) | Mid-Sized Bets Start Paying Off
- Core Business acceleration: Business segment sales +28% YoY, driven by Mid-sized corporate strength; ARR +32% YoY to ¥29.6bn.
- Non-Core drag explains topline miss: Total sales +11.7% YoY to ¥11.5bn vs est. ¥12.1bn; ex-Hirac Fund, sales +18% YoY.
- Margin strength: Record-high EBITDA of ¥0.8bn (7% margin), achieved without one-off gains; signals improving core profitability.
Jensen Went to the White House, and to China
- US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.
- It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).
- For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%). Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).
Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals
- Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) shares fell 52% from February 2024 peak, with losses deepening after its conservative mid-term plan and the failed activist board proposal in June 2025.
- However, we believe the company’s mid-term guidance is overly conservative and underestimates the company’s underlying earnings potential
- With depressed valuation, fare-driven revenue growth, and volume recovery potential, we see limited downside and an appealing opportunity for medium-term price appreciation.
The Beat Ideas: LIC Housing Finance- RoA at Decade High, Valuation Near Lows?
- India’s largest HF company with a stable loan book, supported by LIC’s parentage and a focus on salaried home loans, shows its fundamental strength.
- The company demonstrates robust operational performance, marked by a decade-high 1.83% Return on Assets (RoA) and a competitive 16% Return on Equity (ROE).
- It targets future growth by efficiently managing borrowing costs and strategically diversifying into higher-margin segments like project finance and LAP/LRD.
Eli Lilly’s Obesity Pill For The Masses Could Flip The $150 Billion Market on Its Head!
- Eli Lilly has firmly positioned itself at the forefront of the global anti-obesity drug race, fueled by its blockbuster GLP-1-based injectable Zepbound and an upcoming oral pill called orforglipron that could further cement its dominance.
- While rival Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy enjoyed a first-mover advantage, Lilly’s more effective compound tirzepatide rapidly seized control of the market, capturing 60% share and 75% of new treatment starts.
- Despite facing a setback with CVS’s recent formulary switch favoring Wegovy, Lilly continues to add approximately 500,000 new Zepbound patients each month and is expanding aggressively into international markets including India, China, and Mexico.
Can Ola Electric Stage a Strong Comeback? Analyzing Its Current Performance & Future Potential
- Ola Electric reported a strong 35.5% QoQ increase in revenue, with a significant 32.7% increase in vehicle deliveries
- Overall company showed a rebound and improvement in operational and financial performance, along with strong guidance for FY26.
- Though the company continue to face key headwinds in terms of cost pressures, rare-earth related macro headwinds along with increased competition and regulatory challenges.
Toumei (4439 JP): Q3 FY08/25 flash update
- Toumei’s Q3 FY08/25 revenue reached JPY21.2bn, a 25.8% YoY increase, with record highs in all profit categories.
- Office Denki 119 revenue rose 44.9% YoY to JPY9.3bn, with segment profit up 104.8% YoY to JPY1.5bn.
- Office Solutions segment revenue grew 64.9% YoY to JPY2.5bn, with profit increasing 47.5% YoY to JPY276mn.
Hong Kong Office Market: Persistent Vacancy and Rental Pressure – SHORT Champion REIT 2778 HK
- The Hong Kong office market is now facing multiple headwinds including an oversupply, persistently weak demand and slowdown in Chinese corporates expansion
- Accordingly, the availability rate In Hong Kong office rose to record high, reaching 19.3% as of Q2 2025, according to Cushman. Vacancy rate in Central is at 13%
- We are bearish on Champion REIT, given its direct exposure to HK Grade A office market
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