In today’s briefing:
- Japan Activism Briefs | Casio, Nittoku
- Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst
- MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Decline by Approximately 0–6%.
- IEX Powers Ahead: Volume Growth Signals Strong Q1 and Strategic Evolution
- Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Something Seems Not Quite Right!
- Coinbase 2025 High Conviction Call Update: Limited Near-Term Upside from Current Valuation
- National Storage REIT – The Monday Report – 14 July 2025
- Provaris Energy Ltd – On the cusp of commerciality
- Kinatico Ltd – Q4 SaaS revenue surpasses 50%, RaaS forecasts beat
- Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Guidance Reiterated Amid Seemingly Temporary Hiccup in Q1FY26
Japan Activism Briefs | Casio, Nittoku
- Oasis Management disclosed a 5.2% stake, increasing pressure on Casio to improve capital efficiency and strategic clarity.
- City Index disclosed a 5.1% stake, signalling intent to drive value at Nittoku via capital return and improved governance.
- 3D Investment continue to add to Square Enix position. 3D and Dalton likely to target weak margins, bloated cash, and capital inefficiency – lots to work with.
Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst
- Zijin has guided for a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit to RMB 23.2 billion, driven by strong copper and gold pricing and volume gains.
- Based on this, we see scope to revise our FY2025 PAT and EPS estimates up by 16–19%, and EBITDA by 35–50%.
- The proposed listing of Zijin Gold International in Hong Kong could unlock value from its high-margin overseas gold assets and enhance investor visibility.
MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Decline by Approximately 0–6%.
- For Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)’s 3Q25 outlook, its revenue is expected to decline by approximately 0–6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting a relative low seasonal factors and order adjustments.
- Regarding Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)’s partnership with Alphabet (GOOGL US), the TPU v7e is expected to begin tape-out in September 2025.
- Based on current project developments using TSMC’s 2nm process, MediaTek is highly likely to co-develop the next-generation MTIA v4 ASIC with Meta (META US).
IEX Powers Ahead: Volume Growth Signals Strong Q1 and Strategic Evolution
- Volume Data: IEX volumes rose 15% YoY in Q1 FY26, led by strong RTM and Green Market growth.
- Near-Term Outlook: Higher volumes should lift Q1 earnings, with EBITDA and PAT expected to rise ~22%.
- Future Plans: IEX is launching new products like G-RTM and LDCs, and investing in P2P and smart grid tech.
Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Something Seems Not Quite Right!
- Orient Overseas International (316 HK)‘s 25.9% YTD surge in share price is difficult to justify, as the load factor started to contract and the average freight rate declined.
- Transpacific and Asia-Europe freight rates plunged by 14.7% and 17.3% in 2Q25, respectively. The transpacific volume also registered the first YoY decline in the quarter.
- Its P/B of 0.85x is 1SD above average, and is way higher than FY21-22. However, the FY25F earnings of US$1.5bn are incomparable to US$7-10bn in FY21-22.
Coinbase 2025 High Conviction Call Update: Limited Near-Term Upside from Current Valuation
- Using SOTP is likely the best way to value COIN going forward as its subscription and services revenue is now more substantial and Circle has just gone public.
- Non-Transaction revenue is being valued at a much higher multiple than transaction revenue. SOTP valuation indicates limited near-term upside from COIN’s current market capitalization.
- Circle’s impact on Coinbase is now twofold: 1) driving its revenue mix shift toward non-transaction revenue; 2) acting as a key benchmark for its non-transaction revenue valuation.
National Storage REIT – The Monday Report – 14 July 2025
- Wrap of events affecting the market on Friday night and the weekend and a preview of the week ahead
Provaris Energy Ltd – On the cusp of commerciality
- Provaris Energy Ltd (ASX:PV1) represents a unique investment opportunity as a leveraged play on the growing shift to alternative energy and carbon reduction, particularly in Europe, but applicable on a global basis.
- The keystone to production and growth is the company’s proprietary ‘storage tank’ IP, enabling greater volumes of compressed gases to transport at lower cost (‘more for less’).
- The company holds a material early-mover advantage with a number of strategic partnerships and two hydrogen supply, offtake and shipping agreements expected to become unconditional over the next 12 months.
Kinatico Ltd – Q4 SaaS revenue surpasses 50%, RaaS forecasts beat
- Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
- The company has announced that total revenue in Q4 increased 15% to $8.5m, with higher-margin SaaS (Software-as-a-Service) revenue making up 52% of the total, compared with 38% of total Q4 revenue in FY24.
- SaaS revenue grew 57% in the quarter on the previous corresponding period (pcp) to $4.4m and is tracking at $17.5m on an annualised basis.
Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Guidance Reiterated Amid Seemingly Temporary Hiccup in Q1FY26
- Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) Q1FY26 revenue of ¥34.7B down 3% YoY, mainly driven by subdued performance in Salonpas focused OTC pharmaceutical products.
- Rx business revenues grew 7% as Zicthoru, Apohide, Combipatch,Vivelle-Dot etc clocked healthy numbers excepting Mohrus product line.
- Hisamitsu reiterated FY26 guidance expecting revenue to be ¥165B with profits growth expected to decelerate on higher cost.
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