In today’s briefing:
- Nihon Parkerizing (4095) – 3mos Left on Big Buyback
- Asian Equities: Currency Strength Driving FII Flows – Winners and Losers
- A 100% Tariffs on Films Produced Outside the U.S. – Negative on Korean Film Production Companies
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Next Gen Node Unprecedented Demand; QCOM/Mediatek Chips’ Peformance Leaks
- Adani Power: Navigating Challenges
- Kolmar Korea: K-Beauty ODMs- Positioned to Ride US Demand Growth While Tiding Over Tariffs
- Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlooks Largely in Line; Exchange Rates and Tariffs Remain Uncertain…
- TAL Education Group: Innovation in Learning Devices
- AMD: 1Q25 Small Beat, 2Q Would Have Been a Large Beat Except for New US Export Restrictions to China
- Nuvoco Vistas: Improving Performance and Strategic Expansion
Nihon Parkerizing (4095) – 3mos Left on Big Buyback
- Last year in August, Nihon Parkerizing (4095 JP) announced a large buyback – up to 12.0mm shares (9.6%) spending up to ¥15.0bn over the next 11.5mos.
- So far, they have spent ¥9.1bn buying back 7.3mm shares. That’s ¥5.9 left to spend in 3mos.
- It’s worth a look to see how this has evolved and how it might evolve into the end of the buyback. And it’s cheap, though tariff uncertainty exists.
Asian Equities: Currency Strength Driving FII Flows – Winners and Losers
- The recent spike in Asian currencies is driving foreign institutional flows into Asian equities. Currency appreciation is usually a lead indicator of FII flows, implying that this enthusiasm may continue.
- The markets that were sold down the most are attracting the most flows and could continue to do so. India, Taiwan and to a lesser extent, Korea qualify.
- Domestic sectors like Chinese internet, restaurant chains, athleisure; Indian private banks, consumer discretionary, hospital chains could gain. So could defensives with high dividend yields, e.g. Korea and Chinese utilities, telecom.
A 100% Tariffs on Films Produced Outside the U.S. – Negative on Korean Film Production Companies
- The Trump administration proposed a new 100% tariffs at movies produced outside the United States. Korean contents account for about 8-9% of total viewing hours on Netflix globally.
- Top three listed film/drama production companies in Korea including Studio Dragon, CJ ENM, and ContentreeJoongAng are likely to be negatively impacted by the new major tariffs imposed by the U.S.
- Economics of making a movie is much cheaper in South Korea versus the U.S. Producing a film in South Korea can cost 30–70% less than in the United States.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Next Gen Node Unprecedented Demand; QCOM/Mediatek Chips’ Peformance Leaks
- TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node is Experiencing Unprecedented Customer Demand
- Showdown Heats Up Between Qualcomm & Mediatek’s Next Generation of Mobile Phone SoCs — And All Roads Lead to TSMC’s Process Technology
- Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG
Adani Power: Navigating Challenges
- Adani Power delivered strong FY25 earnings and plans to expand capacity to 30.7 GW by FY30 through brownfield, greenfield, and acquisition-driven growth.
- Godda, Jharkhand (110km from Bangladesh) project supports high realisations, but Bangladesh receivable buildup (~USD 900 million) remains a working capital risk, with gradual collections ongoing.
- Adani Power offers strong margins, improving ROCE, and trades at ~16.6× FY25 P/E.
Kolmar Korea: K-Beauty ODMs- Positioned to Ride US Demand Growth While Tiding Over Tariffs
- K-Beauty ODM segment appears positioned both to ride the secular growth of Korean skincare in the U.S. and to tide over tariff turbulence given their US based manufacturing facilities.
- By contrast to OEM/ODM players, major legacy consumer beauty brands like AmorePacific, LG Household & Health Care have been slower to localise production leaving them exposed to reciprocal tariffs.
- With American cosmetic imports from Korea hitting all-time highs, Korean ODMs with local facilities could see demand growth and profit recovery as clients onshore production to avoid tariffs.
Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlooks Largely in Line; Exchange Rates and Tariffs Remain Uncertain…
- 2Q25 outlook: Wafer shipments are expected to grow +3~5% QoQ, ASP is expected to increase +0~2% QoQ and Gross margin is projected at 27~29%.
- 2Q25 by platform: PMIC to see significant growth; discrete to grow in low single digits; DDIC to remain flat.
- The 2024 annual dividend policy is maintained at NT$4.5 per share.
TAL Education Group: Innovation in Learning Devices
- TAL Education Group’s latest quarter and fiscal year performance presents a mixed picture, with notable expansions alongside challenges in profitability.
- Key areas such as Learning Services and Content Solutions have shown significant revenue growth, demonstrating the company’s efforts to broaden its educational offerings.
- In fiscal 2025, TAL Education Group recorded a considerable increase in net revenues, reaching USD 2.3 billion, a 51% rise from the previous year.
AMD: 1Q25 Small Beat, 2Q Would Have Been a Large Beat Except for New US Export Restrictions to China
- Good 1Q25, revenue +36% YoY, EPS +55%. Complicated 2-3Q ahead due to US export restrictions cutting down revenue by 1.5bn. This is a one-off. Ignoring this, underlying growth looks strong.
- AMD is gaining share in PC and Server, incl enterprise. GPU offering is still behind Nvidia but improving with MI350 in mid-25, MI400 mid-26. MI400 should be on-par with NVDA.
- The stock is down -45% from Jan-24. Trading on low multiples versus historicals: 17x 2026 EPS or more than -1 stdev below avg. Buy!
Nuvoco Vistas: Improving Performance and Strategic Expansion
- Nuvoco reported improved volumes, margins, and deleveraging in FY25, with continued focus on cost optimization and operational efficiency.
- The Vadraj Cement acquisition expands capacity to 31 MTPA, diversifying regional exposure and strengthening presence in Gujarat and Maharashtra – west region.
- Valuations are reasonable at ~16x FY27E earnings and ~Rs5,100/ton EV/ton, but upside depends on timely integration and ramp-up of new assets.
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