Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Primer: Lion Rock Group (1127 HK) – Nov 2025 and more

• Lion Rock Group is a global printing services provider with a strong foothold in the international book publishing market, demonstrating consistent revenue growth and robust cash flow generation.
• The company faces headwinds from the secular decline of traditional print media but is actively pursuing growth through strategic acquisitions and operational diversification, particularly in Australia and Southeast Asia.
• Valuation appears attractive, with low earnings multiples and a high dividend yield, suggesting a value proposition for investors, balanced against the inherent risks of the evolving printing industry.

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• Omada Health reported stronger than expected 3Q25 revenue of ~$68M (consensus: $61.2M) and management provided guidance for 2025 revenue of $251.5M-$254.5M, +49% y/y at midpoint.  
• The chronic disease management company introduced Meal Map, a new AI-powered nutrition tool integrated within the Omada Health’s cardiometabolic programs.
• I’m updating OMDA model estimates in my insight to reflect the company’s 3Q25 results, management guidance, and trends in the digital therapeutics space.

• NEC and Siemens plan to develop an automated robot teaching system for faster set-up and more efficient operation of production lines incorporating multiple robots.
• NEC’s FY Mar-26 guidance raised on strong 1H results. BluStellar, which includes digital twins for robot teaching, grew faster than expected.  
• Aerospace/Defense led sales growth and followed BluStellar in operating profit. Improving product mix and rising Japanese defense budget point to growing long-term potential.

• The medical insurance fund has crossed certain “warning lines”. Therefore, it is inevitable that the measures to control costs at the expenditure end will be further tightened.
• We are actually not optimistic about the NewCo model, because domestic pharmaceutical companies may not necessarily be able to share much of Newco’s future development achievements in the end.
• BeiGene’s 25Q3 results beat expectations. However, there’s no next blockbuster that can drive BeiGene to a big step forward, this is why the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation.

• 1H FY26 results resilient: LNG and FX offset metals softness; FY26 NI raised 6% to ¥820 bn, ROE ~13%.
• Valuation gap to Itochu closed; Mitsui now trades ~1.4× P/B with superior copper and LNG leverage.
• Sustained buybacks (~5% p.a.) and ≥10% Berkshire anchor ensure 6–9% TSR CAGR, with 10%+ if copper >US$10k/t.

• Macnica is a leading Japanese technology distributor specializing in semiconductors and network equipment, well-positioned to capitalize on long-term growth in AI, IoT, and automotive sectors.
• The company is strategically shifting towards a higher-margin ‘Services & Solutions’ model, expanding beyond traditional distribution to include proprietary products and cybersecurity services.
• While facing near-term headwinds from semiconductor market cyclicality and margin pressure, Macnica maintains a strong balance sheet, attractive dividend yield, and a valuation that appears reasonable compared to global peers.

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• Serve Robotics is a key player in the nascent autonomous sidewalk delivery market, with a strategic focus on last-mile food and grocery delivery.
• The company’s growth is underpinned by significant partnerships with major food delivery platforms, Uber Eats and DoorDash, providing immediate access to a large volume of orders.
• While experiencing rapid revenue growth, the company remains unprofitable with significant cash burn, highlighting the high-risk, high-reward nature of this emerging industry. The path to profitability hinges on successful fleet expansion, operational efficiency, and navigating regulatory landscapes.

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• TSMC: +21.8% Premium; Wait for Lower Premium Before Fresh Long
• UMC: +2.2% Premium; Good Level to Short the ADR Premium
• CHT: -2.0% Discount; Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread

• Core “Ocean” EBITDA fell by 55% Y/Y in Q325 due to lower average freight rates
• Maersk lifted lower end of guidance range, but offered downbeat tone on Q4, 2026
• Shares fell by 5% in response to Thursday’s report; we remain negative on sector

• Bitfarms is a vertically integrated Bitcoin mining company aggressively expanding its operational footprint in North America and diversifying into High-Performance Computing (HPC) and AI infrastructure to create new, stable revenue streams.
• The company’s strategy hinges on leveraging low-cost, primarily renewable energy sources to maintain competitiveness in a post-halving environment, where operational efficiency is paramount for profitability.
• Significant financial risks exist, including a history of net losses, high stock volatility, and execution risk associated with its capital-intensive pivot to the AI/HPC sector, alongside its inherent exposure to the volatile price of Bitcoin.

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