In today’s briefing:
- SK Square: Time to Take Profits + Why Are There Holdco Discounts in the First Place?
- Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report
- TSMC June Revenue Down 17.7% Mom. What Gives?
- Crizac (CRIZ:NS). Sell into the Aftermarket.
- U.S. Bancorp: Will The Management Focus On Payments Power & Precision Cost Control Pay Off?
- Fast Retailing(9983) | Q3 Miss But FY Guide Intact – Execution Solid, China Still Weak
- Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – July 2025
- PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year
- India Insider Buying – June ’25: Strong Activity in Small Caps, Limited Participation in Large Caps.
- American International Group (AIG) Is Using AI To Add To Its Competitive Advantage In Underwriting Precision; But Is It Enough?
SK Square: Time to Take Profits + Why Are There Holdco Discounts in the First Place?
- We are changing our View on SK Square (402340 KS) to Negative.
- The major reason for this change is due to the surge in its share price along with lack of upside relative to its NAV.
- Regarding SK Square, our holdco discount remains 40%. However, if there are real, positive continued efforts to improve corporate governance, this holdco discount could be reduced further.
Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report
- A foreign short seller has released its short thesis note on Vedanta Group, labelling the group as a Ponzi scheme.
- The report’s central assertion is ‘to repay the debt of holding company Vedanta Resources, Vedanta Limited paid aggressive dividends leading to depletion of financial & operational strength of Vedanta
- Dividend & delisting along with share purchases funded through debt, unreconciled interest, and depleting asset base, stagnancy in expansion plans.
TSMC June Revenue Down 17.7% Mom. What Gives?
- TSMC today reported June 2025 revenues of NT$263.71 billion, a decrease of 17.7 % MoM but an increase of 26.9% YoY
- At the guided exchange rate of 32.5, TSMC’s Q225 revenue amounts to $28.7 billion, up 12.2% QoQ and up 37.6% YoY, but roughly $100 million below the guided midpoint
- However, if we take today’s exchange rate of 29.24, Q225 revenue comes in at $31.9 billion, way above the guide. Take your pick & let’s see this day next week
Crizac (CRIZ:NS). Sell into the Aftermarket.
- Crizac has had a successful IPO, pricing at 28x PE.
- Before any aftermarket premium, the company is already at a significant valuation premium to other global education stocks.
- CRIZ has too many risks to justify a high rating. 95% of revenues come from India-UK student placement, aggregating applications for 10,362 agents.
U.S. Bancorp: Will The Management Focus On Payments Power & Precision Cost Control Pay Off?
- U.S. Bancorp reported first-quarter 2025 earnings with earnings per share of $1.03 and a return on tangible common equity of 17.5%.
- The company demonstrated progress on its strategic priorities, achieving a year-over-year positive operating leverage of 270 basis points on an adjusted basis.
- This improvement was driven by disciplined expense management, momentum across fee businesses, and modest margin expansion.
Fast Retailing(9983) | Q3 Miss But FY Guide Intact – Execution Solid, China Still Weak
- Q3 revenue/OP miss vs. our est. on weaker-than-expected Uniqlo International – FX and China weakness key drivers.
- Japan and Western markets continue to outperform; U.S. and Europe now rival China in size.
- FY company guidance unchanged but rising risks to next FY from tariffs and persistent China underperformance.
Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – July 2025
- We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.
- We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% YoY, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.
- Read our initiation on Asian Terminals Inc (ATI PM): Steady and Cheap Container Port Terminal Operator, and our recent update on DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM).
PC 2Q25: 6-7% Unit Growth YoY Is Pretty Good. 2025 Looks like a 5-6% Growth Year
- Consumer demand remains slow but Enterprises are upgrading to Windows 11. Low risk of tariff distortion: 1Q was too high in the US but 2Q has slowed down.
- 2Q25 highest YoY growth: Apple (22%), Asus (17%), Lenovo (16%). Others are flat. Enterprise growth also implies higher ASP and margins for PC and CPU vendors.
- On the CPU side, AMD share gains have slowed in PC, accelerated in Server. Given their roadmap, AMD should keep gaining slowly, Intel defending with difficulty.
India Insider Buying – June ’25: Strong Activity in Small Caps, Limited Participation in Large Caps.
- Insider buying spanned across 40+ stocks in June 2025, highlighting continued conviction among promoters, directors, and trusts.
- While, there were fewer companies with market cap above USD 1 bn which saw insider buying, this number was significantly higher (35 count) in smaller names.
- Companies which have zoomed after the insider purchases include – LT Foods Ltd (LTFO IN) (+10%), Valor Estate (+11%). In smaller names – Man Industries (India) (MAN IN) (+88%)
American International Group (AIG) Is Using AI To Add To Its Competitive Advantage In Underwriting Precision; But Is It Enough?
- American International Group (AIG) presented its first quarter of 2025 results, showcasing a mix of achievements and challenges that yield insights for potential investors.
- The company’s performance was framed by significant strategic moves, including the deconsolidation of Corebridge Financial in mid-2024, which has reorganized its financial statements to treat Corebridge’s historical results as discontinued operations.
- AIG reported an adjusted after-tax income of $702 million or $1.17 per diluted share for the period.
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