In today’s briefing:
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains Extreme; UMC ADR Short Interest Falling
- Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (11 Aug)
- COSCO Shipping Ports (1199 HK): Potential Involvement in CKH’s Port Sale
- Case Study: Time-Based Exit in Two Long-Running Pair Trades
- Apple. A Master Class On How To Win Friends & Influence People
- Champion Iron (CIA AU) Vs. Stanmore (SMR AU): Coal–Steel Mean Reversion Targeting 12%
- UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN): Statistical Edge in India Bank Pair Trade
- VEON 2Q25: Solid Digital Non-Telco Products Uplift, Kyivstar Listing in Focus
- BeiGene (6160.HK/ONC US) 25Q2 – The High Growth of BRUKINSA May Not Bring High Valuation
- Haier D-Share (690D GR) — 2025 Update
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains Extreme; UMC ADR Short Interest Falling
- TSMC: +22.8% Premium; ADR Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Levels
- UMC: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Levels; Short Interest in ADRs Falling
- ASE: -0.1% Discount; Continued Opportunity to Go Long the ADR Spread
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (11 Aug)
- Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
- Highlight: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors persist.
- Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.
COSCO Shipping Ports (1199 HK): Potential Involvement in CKH’s Port Sale
- Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK) is a major beneficiary of its parent’s potential 20-30% stake in the consortium to acquire CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)‘s port portfolio.
- A potential injection of such assets from its parent will enhance its profitability, diversify its throughput mix, and expand its geographical coverage in the future.
- Its 8.3x PER and 0.43x P/B are not expensive relative to earnings outlook and ROE. The strong 1Q25 and upcoming 1H25 results mean earnings upgrade potential.
Case Study: Time-Based Exit in Two Long-Running Pair Trades
- Context: This Insight is an update on two previously published relative value pairs.
- Highlight: The trades provide a case study illustrating how mean-reversion trades can fail to revert or hit stop-losses within extended timeframes.
- Why Read: Gain insights into timing-related challenges in mean-reversion strategies and time-based exit as a risk management choice.
Apple. A Master Class On How To Win Friends & Influence People
- Apple CEO Tim Cook visited the White House announcing an additional $100 billion investment in the US over the next four years, on top of the $500 billion already committed.
- He launched the American Manufacturing Program with nine initial members seven of which are already long terms partners and two of which have no direct relationship with Apple at all
- Samsung with its image sensor deal (presumably) and MP Materials with its rare earth magnets deal are two clear winners from the Apple announcement. Overall, successful mission by Mr. Cook.
Champion Iron (CIA AU) Vs. Stanmore (SMR AU): Coal–Steel Mean Reversion Targeting 12%
- Context: The Champion Iron (CIA AU) vs. Stanmore Resources (SMR AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
- Highlights: The trade targets ~12% return to the one-standard-deviation line.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN): Statistical Edge in India Bank Pair Trade
- Context: The UCO Bank (UCO IN) vs. Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN) price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
- Highlights: Both stocks are trading near 52-week lows, opening a window for a statistically supported mean-reversion setup.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
VEON 2Q25: Solid Digital Non-Telco Products Uplift, Kyivstar Listing in Focus
- Digital Growth & Guidance Up: 2Q25 revenue +11.2% YoY (LCY), EBITDA margin 47.8%; digital revenue share hits 16.5%; Group FY25 guidance raised to +13–15% revenue, 14–16% EBITDA growth (LCY).
- Uklon Boost: First consolidation of Uklon ridesharing acquisition added US$21.7m revenue, US$9.3m EBITDA to the quarter; expansion in Uzbekistan underway, Kazakhstan a likely future market.
- Fintech Momentum: JazzCash +47% revenue; Banglalink digital bank license pending; Ukraine fintech optionality via Kyivstar, Helsi, and Uklon integration. We maintain our Structural Long rating for the shares.
BeiGene (6160.HK/ONC US) 25Q2 – The High Growth of BRUKINSA May Not Bring High Valuation
- BeiGene’s 25Q2 performance beat expectations. The main driver was still BRUKINSA. The growth rate of tislelizumab was surprising.Sales of tislelizumab in international market is expected to be reflected in 25H2.
- BeiGene’s turnaround from losses to profits has entered the countdown.However, investors may not be happy with the net profit margin brought by single revenue driver Brukinsa based on our calculation.
- There’s no next blockbuster that can drive BeiGene to a big step forward.This is why the market is reluctant to offer higher valuation, despite current high growth in product revenue.
Haier D-Share (690D GR) — 2025 Update
Haier is the world’s largest home appliances company, with particular strength in refrigerators and washing machines. It’s got multiple world-renowned brands, including Haier, GE Appliance, Fisher & Paykel, Candy and more.
The company was largely built by visionary entrepreneur Zhang Ruimin, who created a corporate culture unique in China and beyond. He spearheaded Haier’s international expansion, acquiring companies such as America’s GE Appliances and Italy’s Candy, giving it local distribution networks for its lower-priced Haier offering.
In late 2020, Haier Smart Home merged with its separately-listed distribution subsidiary Haier Electronics. Following this complex transaction, Haier was left with three separate share classes: A-shares listed in Shanghai, H-shares listed in Hong Kong and D-shares listed in Frankfurt.
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