In today’s briefing:
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q25 Outlook Slightly Softer; US Fab to Dilute GM; AI Remains Key Driver.
- Supreme Court Overturns a Lower Court Ruling for the Divorce Case Chey Tae-Won and Roh So-Young
- Why TSMC 3Q25 Indicates Strong AI Accelerator Demand Through 2029E; Maintain Structural Long Rating
- TSMC 3Q25 Big Beat on Margins, 4Q Guidance Above Consensus, Raising 2025 Guidance
- Vedanta: The Aluminium Transformation — Zinc Cash + Silver Power + O&G Optionality
- Keurig Dr Pepper Is Splitting in Two After a Mega Acquisition—You Won’t Believe What’s Coming!
- Polaris Just Sold Its Indian Motorcycle Business— A $478 Million Shift In Strategy!
- ASML Q325 Earnings In Line, Outlook More Positive Compared To Prior Quarter, Big Emphasis On AI
- Applied Digital Just Landed an $11 Billion AI Deal With CoreWeave — Is This the Next Nvidia!
- ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q25 Outlook Slightly Softer; US Fab to Dilute GM; AI Remains Key Driver.
- For 4Q25, revenue guidance is US$32.2–33.4 billion, equivalent to NT$985.3–1,022.0 billion (based on an assumed FX rate of 30.6).
- N2 will begin mass production later this quarter with good yields, and volume will ramp in 2026 driven by both smartphone and HPC/AI applications
- Smartphone inventory has returned to seasonally healthy levels, with no signs of early pull-ins.
Supreme Court Overturns a Lower Court Ruling for the Divorce Case Chey Tae-Won and Roh So-Young
- The long-standing divorce case between SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won and his estranged wife Roh So-young refuses to end.
- Rather, the Supreme Court of Korea overturned a lower court ruling that ordered Chey Tae-won to pay 1.38 trillion won ($973 million) to Ro So-young.
- Our NAV valuation of SK Inc suggests implied market cap of 25.8 trillion won or target price of 355,918 won per share, which is 63% higher than current levels.
Why TSMC 3Q25 Indicates Strong AI Accelerator Demand Through 2029E; Maintain Structural Long Rating
- TSMC 3Q25: Margins Surge as Pricing Power Strengthens Ahead of 2nm Ramp
- AI Megatrend Continues to Reshape Demand – 40% CAGR Expected for AI Accelerators Through 2029
- Maintain Structural Long Rating — TSMC Remains Inexpensive vs. Tech Companies Highly Dependent on It
TSMC 3Q25 Big Beat on Margins, 4Q Guidance Above Consensus, Raising 2025 Guidance
- Operating Margin 50.6%, Guidance 46.5%, Consensus 47.4%. 3Q net income 11% above Consensus. 4Q25 Guidance is ~8% above Consensus.
- TSMC increase 2025 revenue growth from ~30% to ~35% in US$, mentioning AI demand outlook. CFO mentions that N2 structural profitability is better than N3 (imo large wafer price increase).
- The stock looks expensive at +1 std dev but 1) Consensus looks too low for 2026-27 with 17%, 21% EPS growth YoY. Remember, 2025 Operating Profit increase over 40% YoY.
Vedanta: The Aluminium Transformation — Zinc Cash + Silver Power + O&G Optionality
- Growth: EBITDA mix improves as aluminium integration + captive coal lift margins, silver ramps, and zinc stays cash generative; deleveraging begins FY27 as cash flows strengthen.
- Commodity Play: Positive leverage to aluminium, zinc, and silver prices; cost base falling, not rising — rare margin tailwind in a metals cycle.
- Valuation + Yield: Trades cheap vs peers; rerating optionality + double-digit dividend yield provides downside protection with asymmetric upside.
Keurig Dr Pepper Is Splitting in Two After a Mega Acquisition—You Won’t Believe What’s Coming!
- Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) has jolted the global beverage industry with a bold two-step maneuver that may reshape its corporate DNA.
- In a surprise announcement, KDP revealed plans to acquire global coffee giant JDE Peet’s for an enterprise value of $23 billion, followed by a spin-off to create two stand-alone public companies—Global Coffee Co. and Beverage Co. The all-cash acquisition is priced at a 20% premium to JDE Peet’s market price and values the target at approximately 13x 2026 EV/EBITDA pre-synergies or 10.5x post-synergies.
- KDP aims to finalize the acquisition by the first half of 2026 and pursue a tax-free spin-off of the coffee business soon thereafter.
Polaris Just Sold Its Indian Motorcycle Business— A $478 Million Shift In Strategy!
- Polaris Inc. has announced the sale of its iconic Indian Motorcycle business to private-equity firm Carolwood LP, a move expected to reshape the powersports manufacturer’s strategic focus.
- The divestiture, expected to close in Q1 2026, will result in a $1.00 uplift to Polaris’s annualized adjusted earnings per share (EPS), according to company statements.
- Indian contributed roughly $478 million, or 7% of revenues over the trailing 12 months ending June 30, 2025.
ASML Q325 Earnings In Line, Outlook More Positive Compared To Prior Quarter, Big Emphasis On AI
- Q325 revenues of €7.5 billion, slightly down on the prior quarter and towards the bottom end of the guided range
- Looking ahead, the company is forecasting fourth quarter revenues of €9.5 billion at the midpoint, a significant jump QoQ but again in line with prior expectations.
- Mood music improved, 2026 revenues “not be below 2025”, China sales soared to 42%, but will decline next year, 11% stake in Mistral gets ASML “closer to the AI world”
Applied Digital Just Landed an $11 Billion AI Deal With CoreWeave — Is This the Next Nvidia!
- Applied Digital jumped 28% on Friday after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings and announcing a landmark lease expansion with AI hyperscaler CoreWeave.
- The rally caps off a year-to-date stock surge of 391%, positioning Applied as one of the top-performing infrastructure stocks in 2025.
- For the quarter ended August 31, the company posted an adjusted net loss of $0.03 per share, dramatically narrower than the $0.16 loss expected by Wall Street.
ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028
- Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still pre-production.
- ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?
- ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don’t like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.
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