In today’s briefing:
- TSMC 2Q25: A Number of Very Positive Messages, Plus a Major Contradiction on 4Q25 Revenue
- TSMC 2Q25 Takeways: Undervalued Op Leverage and Capacity Strain Setting Up 2026 N2 Growth Suprise
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): FX Could Make an Impact; Full Year USD Revenue Raised to ~30% YoY.
- Geely (175 HK): Deliveries Up by 42% YoY in June – Rapid Growth to Go On in 3Q25
- Square Enix (9684) | Turnaround in Motion
- Boeing Breathes Easy For Now, But AI171 Crash Leaves A Trail Of Uncomfortable Questions!
- Insignia Financial Ltd – The Overnight Report: New ASX Record Beckons
- Computershare Limited: Initiation of Coverage- How Smart Hedging & Rate Moves Are Driving a $1.8 Billion Windfall!
- Max Healthcare (MAXHEALT IN): Sell
- NEXTDC Ltd – Rudi’s View: Aussie Broadband, oOh!media, Paladin Energy, Seek, Xero & More
TSMC 2Q25: A Number of Very Positive Messages, Plus a Major Contradiction on 4Q25 Revenue
- NT$ appreciation large impact on revenue / margins but TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance is in-line. FX impact is partially neutralize by other factors (utilization, cost control) .
- This will be controversial: management increase 2025 US$-revenue growth from mid-20 to 30%. Yet, this implies that 4Q25 US$-revenue growth will collapse to 9% YoY and NT$-growth will be negative.
- At same time, mngt gives a long list of very positive messages on AI demand, N2 ramp, full utilization of EUV nodes. This could lead to short-term stock price weakness.
TSMC 2Q25 Takeways: Undervalued Op Leverage and Capacity Strain Setting Up 2026 N2 Growth Suprise
- TSMC Beats, Raises, and Confirms AI Ramp Is Real, Despite FX Drag
- Conclusion — Maintain Structural Long View, 2026 Growth Likely Underappreciated
- TSMC ADR Premium Rebounds to 23.6% — US Investor Positioning Skewed Toward TSMC’s Unique AI Exposure
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): FX Could Make an Impact; Full Year USD Revenue Raised to ~30% YoY.
- 3Q25 Guidance: Revenue: US$31.8–33.0 billion (approx. 8% QoQ growth); Gross Margin: 55.5–57.5%; Operating Margin: 45.5–47.5%.
- Despite FX headwinds, TSMC aims to maintain gross margin ≥ 53%
- Driven by strong demand in AI (including sovereign AI) and HPC; Full-year USD revenue growth outlook raised to ~30% YoY.
Geely (175 HK): Deliveries Up by 42% YoY in June – Rapid Growth to Go On in 3Q25
- Geely announced that its deliveries grew by 42% YoY in June 2025.
- We expect BEV deliveries will continue to grow fast in 3Q25, but slow down from 4Q25.
- We believe the stock price will rise by 39% for the next twelve months.
Square Enix (9684) | Turnaround in Motion
- Square Enix holds globally recognized IP with monetization upside across platforms, and recent pipeline discipline signals a shift toward higher-margin, high-quality titles that can stabilize earnings and restore growth.
- Activist involvement is intensifying, creating strong pressure for capital returns, governance reform, and strategic clarity – unlocking shareholder value in a business that remains structurally underleveraged and undervalued vs peers.
- With operating margins improving, digital sales accelerating, and cost structures being realigned, Square Enix is positioned to re-rate meaningfully as investor confidence rebuilds and management delivers on core turnaround objectives.
Boeing Breathes Easy For Now, But AI171 Crash Leaves A Trail Of Uncomfortable Questions!
- The tragic crash of Air India Flight 171, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, on June 12, 2025, initially triggered global alarm over the safety of Boeing’s aircraft, evoking chilling memories of the 737 MAX debacle.
- However, a preliminary report by India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) appears to shift attention away from mechanical failure and toward pilot actions.
- According to the report, both fuel control switches were inexplicably moved from the “RUN” to the “CUTOFF” position seconds after takeoff—starving both engines of fuel.
Insignia Financial Ltd – The Overnight Report: New ASX Record Beckons
- A global perspective on what happened overnight
Computershare Limited: Initiation of Coverage- How Smart Hedging & Rate Moves Are Driving a $1.8 Billion Windfall!
- Computershare presented a robust performance in its first-half FY ’25 results.
- The company reported Management Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.653, an 18.7% increase over the previous period, driven by strong business momentum despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, including interest rate changes.
- The company’s management aims to build a simplified, high-quality, and capital-light business model, as evidenced by their recent divestment of the U.S. Mortgage Services business.
Max Healthcare (MAXHEALT IN): Sell
- We are bullish on the long-term growth of the hospital sector in India.
- Like in the case of Apollo Hospitals, Max Healthcare will have tough competition from both listed and unlisted players.
- A 65 FPE does not factor in the high cost of expansion and potential challenges.
NEXTDC Ltd – Rudi’s View: Aussie Broadband, oOh!media, Paladin Energy, Seek, Xero & More
- Update on changes to and revisions of analysts’ Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions
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