In today’s briefing:
- ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Shareholder Vote On 9th Jan. No Mention Of CDH In Latest Doc
- Local Desks Target Year-End Dividend Boost Trading Setup
- A Tender Offer for Asian Terminals by Maharlika Investment Corp (Philippines Sovereign Wealth Fund)
- Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700
- ANE (9956 HK): Uncertainty Ahead of the Scheme Vote on 9 January
- Merger Arbitrage Opportunity: POSCO’s Acquisition of Lithium South Development Faces Retail Shareholder Opposition and Legal Challenges
- Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA) To Spin-Off Versant Media on January 2
- Humm Group (HUM AU): Credit Corp’s NBIO Belatedly Disclosed to Distract from a Potential Board Spill
- Qualcomm – Alphawave: Closing the Loop on a Clean Trade
- STAAR Surgical Acquisition Saga, Merger Closures, and Strategic Moves in BELFA, GBIO, YEXT, CURN, NCC:L
ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Shareholder Vote On 9th Jan. No Mention Of CDH In Latest Doc
- Back on the 28th October, ANE Cayman (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, announced an Offer from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light.
- The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 9th Jan 2026, and expected payment on the 16th Feb. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says “fair & reasonable“.
- Noticeably absent from this Doc is CDH, believed to be in control of ~18% of shares out. Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid.
Local Desks Target Year-End Dividend Boost Trading Setup
- Names outside the new tax regime may hike year-end payouts, with gov’t push boosting odds despite fuzzy timing, drawing local desk interest.
- With timing murky, local desks are targeting high-yield names, 25–40% FY25 payout, and ~10%+ DPS growth as prime candidates for year-end dividend hikes ahead of AGMs.
- Nine first-tier names (25–40% payout, <10% DPS growth, 3%+ yield) are prime dividend plays; five second-tier names (20–25% payout) need monitoring for potential Q4 expense tweaks.
A Tender Offer for Asian Terminals by Maharlika Investment Corp (Philippines Sovereign Wealth Fund)
- Maharlika Investment Corp. (MIC) announced its intentions to launch a tender offer for shares of Asian Terminals.
- This could accelerate the delisting of Asian Terminals from the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE).
- Tender offer price is 36 PHP. Upon completion, MIC is expected to hold approximately 11.2% of ATI’s outstanding common shares.
Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700
- Hogy Medical (3593 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle at JPY6,700, a 2.1% premium to the last close and a 69.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
- Dalton (27.58% ownership ratio) has provided an irrevocable and will reinvest to take a 20% stake in the relevant Carlyle Fund. This is a done deal.
ANE (9956 HK): Uncertainty Ahead of the Scheme Vote on 9 January
- ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)’s IFA opines that the consortium’s offer of cash (HK$12.18 per share) or scrip is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 January.
- The consortium’s decision on 4 December not to raise the share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares is a red flag, casting doubt on the vote’s success.
- The lack of irrevocables from Mr Wang Yongjun and CDH adds to the uncertainty. Therefore, caution is warranted due to an unfavourable risk/reward profile.
Merger Arbitrage Opportunity: POSCO’s Acquisition of Lithium South Development Faces Retail Shareholder Opposition and Legal Challenges
- Lithium South Development is being acquired by POSCO for US$65m, with a 19% spread to redemption price.
- Regulatory issues are unlikely; POSCO has existing operations in Argentina, and the merger is relatively small.
- Retail opposition exists, but no large shareholders can block; undervaluation arguments focus on feasibility study and market comparisons.
Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA) To Spin-Off Versant Media on January 2
- Comcast-Versant separation creates two focused businesses, with Comcast retaining broadband and infrastructure assets while Versant operates standalone cable networks and digital platforms.
- The spin-off to be completed on January 2, 2026. When-issued trading began on Dec 15, 2025, while regular way trading to commence from January 5, 2026.
- Overall, separation enhances transparency, improves peer comparability, and offers investors differentiated exposure across media and connectivity assets.
Humm Group (HUM AU): Credit Corp’s NBIO Belatedly Disclosed to Distract from a Potential Board Spill
- Humm Group (HUM AU) disclosed that on 19 November, it received an indicative proposal from Credit Corp (CCP AU) consisting of a scheme (A$0.77) and an off-market takeover offer (A$0.72).
- The scheme has a low chance of success, and the takeover offer’s 50.1% minimum acceptance condition will prove problematic. The lack of due diligence signals the Board’s reluctance to engage.
- The tardy disclosure is primarily intended to distract from Jeremy Raper’s attempt to mount a Board spill. This is essentially a long-dated backend play on Raper successfully spilling the Board.
Qualcomm – Alphawave: Closing the Loop on a Clean Trade
- Scheme sanctioned, settlement imminent: Alphawave’s acquisition by Qualcomm has cleared all regulatory and legal hurdles. With court approval now secured, shares will delist on 19 December.
- Spread fully closed: At a 17 Dec close of 184.6p and FX-implied offer value of ~185.07p, the deal trades at a negligible +0.26% gross spread, eliminating upside for new entrants.
- Attractive return for early entrants: Arbitrageurs positioned around 177–179p captured ~3–4% gross return, annualizing to ~8%. Clean execution, founder alignment, and low regulatory friction supported a high-certainty event-driven trade.
STAAR Surgical Acquisition Saga, Merger Closures, and Strategic Moves in BELFA, GBIO, YEXT, CURN, NCC:L
- Alcon’s acquisition of STAAR Surgical faces opposition from major shareholders; shareholder vote scheduled this week amid improved risk/reward.
- Emeren Group merger completed with a 13% return; Tile Shop Holdings’ reverse stock split yielded $720 per odd-lot account.
- Bel Fuse’s dual-class share structure proposal by Gabelli narrows spread; Generation Bio’s takeover by XOMA includes cash and CVR.
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