In today’s briefing:
- Holcim Spin-off (Amrize) Deep Dive
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 June 2025): Skew Move Continues as SB Buys But AH Premia Rise
- Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Shift4’s Binding Proposal at NZ$1.20
- SPAC Opportunities, SAGE Takeover, NTGY Tender Offer and MYX Acquisition Developments
- Latest Borrow (Net Short Interest) To Float Ratios — Screening a Starter Basket for Short Flow
- New World Resources (NWC AU): On Kinterra’s A$0.057/Share NBIO
- Spectris in Play: Advent Locks In, KKR Circles
- Takeover Doubts Grow: Break-Up Value Still Supports Re-Rating Case
Holcim Spin-off (Amrize) Deep Dive
Holcim will spin off its construction materials and solutions business into a standalone company, to be named Amrize on Friday, June 20th.
The first day of trading will be Monday, June 23, 2025.
Holcim plans to spin off Amrize, distributing one Amrize share for each Holcim share held.
A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 June 2025): Skew Move Continues as SB Buys But AH Premia Rise
- AH premia bounce back last week but the “skew” of wide premia converging and narrow premia moving wider continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
- The previous week smelled like an RMB counter trade was being set up, “confirmed” by a Caixin article the weekend. The HKEX “confirmation” this past week, well, maybe wasn’t one.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.
Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Shift4’s Binding Proposal at NZ$1.20
- Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Shift4 Payments (FOUR US) at NZ$1.20 (A$1.12), a 19.4% premium to the last close price of NZ$1.005.
- The scheme is subject to shareholder and OIO approval. In the absence of a competing proposal, the offer is the best and final offer.
- Microequities has provided an irrevocable, and the other substantial shareholders should be supportive as the offer is attractive.
SPAC Opportunities, SAGE Takeover, NTGY Tender Offer and MYX Acquisition Developments
- Four SPACs, CCCM, PCAPU, MBAV, and TACO, are highlighted for their potential asymmetric trade opportunities in the crypto sector.
- Sage Therapeutics announced a sale to Supernus Pharmaceuticals, with shareholders receiving $8.50/share in cash and a CVR.
- Mayne Pharma’s acquisition by Cosette progresses with FIRB approval discussions, despite no strict obligation for Cosette to pursue it.
Latest Borrow (Net Short Interest) To Float Ratios — Screening a Starter Basket for Short Flow
- Dropped an Excel below with all names showing borrow as of today’s close — includes short interest and borrow-to-float using latest float data.
- Tables below flag names with borrow-to-float >4% (>3% for small caps) and plenty of unused borrow — solid candidates for potential short flow.
- Not auto-shorts — still need basic checks. But with borrow rising, this set looks like a solid starter basket to watch for short flow.
New World Resources (NWC AU): On Kinterra’s A$0.057/Share NBIO
- It was just a matter of time when Toronto-based PE outfit Kinterra Capital, with a (then) 11.99% stake, made a move on copper miner New World Resources (NWC AU).
- After declaring it had increased its holding to 19.126%, Kinterra followed with an off-market NBIO at A$0.057/share. Presumably the Offer requires due diligence but the announcement is silent on this.
- Separately, Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) announced after market last Friday, it had bought 178.8mn shares (5% of shares out) at A$0.055/share; and subsequently bumped terms to A$0.055/share.
Spectris in Play: Advent Locks In, KKR Circles
- Spectris shares have rallied to £37.98 following a firm offer from Advent and renewed interest from KKR, validating my original high-conviction arbitrage call.
- The binding £37.63/share offer implies 14.4x EV/EBITDA on CY2025 forecasts, well above peer median, reflecting control premium, synergy potential, and prior undervaluation (~6.1x).
- Interloper risk has become material; with the July 11 PUSU deadline for KKR, investors now face modest downside and renewed upside optionality.
Takeover Doubts Grow: Break-Up Value Still Supports Re-Rating Case
- Gerresheimer trades at a steep discount to peers despite premium drug delivery exposure.
- A €70/share offer aligns with DCF fair value and the upper end of SOTP estimates.
- Divesting glass, lowering leverage, and PE-led reform could unlock 50–80% upside.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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