In today’s briefing:
- Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Poised to Secure FEFTA Approval
- [Japan M&A] YAGEO Says It Expects FDI Clearance on Shibaura – Minebea Likely To Fold
- HHI–Mipo Merger Swap: Deal Mechanics & Spread Play Opportunities
- A Merger Between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo
- PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s Dyslexic Bump. Mixi’s Now Holding 42.38%
- Korean Air: A Major Rights Offering Capital Raise Likely In Next 1-2 Years
- ProSiebenSat 1: PPF Concedes, MFE Majority Secured
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Poised to Secure FEFTA Approval
- A day before the close of Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s offer, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has strategically stated that it expects to receive FEFTA approval by 10 September.
- Minebea had tried to convince shareholders that its lower offer provides an opportunity to monetise their shares quickly and with certainty. This line of reasoning is no longer credible.
- As Minebea will not increase its offer or extend the closing date, Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)‘s Board will have to recommend Yageo’s offer.
[Japan M&A] YAGEO Says It Expects FDI Clearance on Shibaura – Minebea Likely To Fold
- Last weekend then post-close Monday, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) raised its TOB Price for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to ¥7,130 – a full 15% through Minebea’s proposed ¥6,200/share terms.
- Minebea was playing chicken with the result, closing its tender on 28 August, before Japan’s Foreign Direct Investment approval (FEFTA approval) was cleared, expected 1 Sep or later.
- Today post-close, YAGEO announced it had concluded discussions with METI, would make all required regulatory submissions today, and expects to obtain approval “no later than 10 September”
HHI–Mipo Merger Swap: Deal Mechanics & Spread Play Opportunities
- HHI–Mipo merger spread looks minimal, but today’s MASGA-driven pop signals momentum flows—likely to mean-revert toward appraisal rights once the theme dissipates.
- Froth lifted prices past fundamentals—once it unwinds, HHI–Mipo could diverge from swap ratio, creating the spread window where traders can get paid.
- This isn’t classic merger arb—it’s about fading a policy-fueled pop, riding the snapback toward appraisal baseline, with flow-driven swings creating short-term tactical arb setups.
A Merger Between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo
- It was announced today that HD Hyundai Heavy Industries will merge with HD Hyundai Mipo. The merger ratio between HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Mipo is 1:0.4059146.
- HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS) will own a 66.29% stake in the merged entity.
- HD KSOE is proceeding with this merger of its two major subsidiaries ahead of the full-scale launch of the MASGA (“Make America Shipbuilding Great Again”) project.
PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s Dyslexic Bump. Mixi’s Now Holding 42.38%
- Betr Entertainment (BBT AU) has bumped scrip terms to 4.375 betr shares per PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) share, equivalent to A$1.31/share, based on betr’s last traded price.
- True to form with betr, there’s a typo in its latest announcement stating a 4.735 ratio. betr just issued a Bidder’s Statement with the correct info.
- Apologies: in my last note I mentioned Mixi Inc (2121 JP) had bumped to A$1.30/share. However, that was predicated on Mixi securing 90%, which won’t happen if betr doesn’t tender.
Korean Air: A Major Rights Offering Capital Raise Likely In Next 1-2 Years
- We believe a major rights offering capital raise is likely for Korean Air Lines (003490 KS) in the next 1-2 years.
- On 25 August, Korean Air announced a 70 trillion won investment plan in the United States. This plan is likely to have been pressured heavily by the Korean government.
- A big problem with this plan is Korean Air does not produce enough cash flow and its balance sheet is not strong enough to invest such huge amounts of capital.
ProSiebenSat 1: PPF Concedes, MFE Majority Secured
- PPF exits the stage: With 15.7% of ProSieben shares tendered into MFE’s bid, PPF has abandoned its rival ambitions, leaving MFE unopposed and on track for outright majority control.
- Arbitrage window closed: ProSieben now trades precisely in line with MFE’s implied offer value. The spread is exhausted, signalling that the classic risk arb trade has already played out.
- Integration is the next test: With majority assured, the spotlight shifts from bid dynamics to synergy execution.
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