In today’s briefing:
- AVJennings (AVJ AU): Competing Offer Brewing
- EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 23 – 27
- Scams of 2024: From Digital Frauds to Corporate Collapses
- SEBI’s Crackdown on Insider Trading in the HDFC-HDFC Bank Merger
- Crypto Moves #58 – Our Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2025
- UniCredit’s Strategic Stake in Commerzbank and Implications for a Takeover
- Cryptocurrency Analysis – Bitcoin – November 25, 2024
AVJennings (AVJ AU): Competing Offer Brewing
- On 28 November, Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) disclosed a non-binding indicative proposal from AVID at A$0.67 per share, a 103.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
- On 27 December, Queensgate Investments became a substantial shareholder, representing 5.39% of outstanding shares. Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP), a Singaporean real-estate developer, owns Queensgate.
- Ho Bee Land is a strategic investor and is likely contemplating a competing offer, mainly because AVID’s offer is below NTA and AVJennings’s controlling shareholder’s ties to Singapore.
EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 23 – 27
- Call volumes dominate tradng across single stocks with the Put/Call ratio hitting its 3rd lowest level since the beginning of November. Volumes continue trend lower in place since early November.
- Auto companies seeing big increases in option volumes with Li Auto and Great Wall Motor moving in opposite directions since the middle of the month.
- We add 2 new tables showing the largest volume increases across Puts and Calls – a conveient way to view unusual changes in trading activity.
Scams of 2024: From Digital Frauds to Corporate Collapses
- 2024 witnessed an unprecedented rise in financial crimes, including an 8x surge in Indian banking fraud, massive cryptocurrency heists, and large-scale corporate fraud like Evergrande’s $78 billion scandal.
- These scams exposed vulnerabilities in technology, governance, and public awareness, underscoring the urgent need for robust regulatory frameworks, enhanced corporate accountability, and public education.
- The evolving sophistication of financial crimes highlights the necessity for vigilance, technological resilience, and proactive measures by individuals, businesses, and governments to mitigate risks in an interconnected world.
SEBI’s Crackdown on Insider Trading in the HDFC-HDFC Bank Merger
- SEBI uncovered insider trading during the HDFC-HDFC Bank merger, implicating a Deloitte employee and his associate, who profited Rs. 8.19 lakh using call options and confidential merger details.
- This case highlights the increasing sophistication of insider trading tactics and reinforces the critical need for stricter compliance to protect investor trust and ensure market transparency.
- The case demonstrates SEBI’s growing reliance on advanced analytics to identify market anomalies, ensuring accountability even in complex trading schemes involving proxy accounts and derivative instruments.
Crypto Moves #58 – Our Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2025
- Nobody enjoys reading lengthy analyses during the holidays between Christmas and New Year’s Eve, and frankly, I am not inclined to write much either.
- Therefore, this edition of Crypto Moves is a concise one, focusing solely on our boldest predictions for the coming year—specifically for 2025.
- These forecasts are straightforward and easy to verify a year from now, whether we turn out to be right or wrong.
UniCredit’s Strategic Stake in Commerzbank and Implications for a Takeover
- UniCredit increased its economic exposure to Commerzbank to approximately 28%, aligning with its strategy to reach a 29.9% stake, pending ECB approval in early 2025.
- Commerzbank’s operational inefficiencies and valuation at 0.56x tangible book value highlight challenges for independence, reinforcing the rationale for a potential UniCredit takeover. My core position would be long Commerzbank.
- Projected synergies for a UniCredit-Commerzbank merger range from €705 million to €1.409 billion annually, with significant upside for Commerzbank’s share price if a takeover occurs.
Cryptocurrency Analysis – Bitcoin – November 25, 2024
- According to Graph 1, during the period October 25th, 2024 – November 25th, 2024, the price of Bitcoin exhibited an exclusively upward trajectory.
- From the beginning of the period until November 6th, the digital asset followed a consolidation pattern amid fluctuations in its price and after this sub-period, an overall bullish momentum began.
- The MA-10 and MA-20 lines started from the same point.
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