In today’s briefing:
- Street Intel on NPS’s Buy Flow—the Key Swing Factor as Korea’s Short-Selling Comeback
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Feb-2025): HK halts commercial land sales to cure office slump.
- BBVA/Sabadell: Updated Terms
- BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – On a Convincing Turn
- Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929 JP) – Laying the Groundwork for Sustained Growth
- Japanese Big Cap Banks – Three Scorecard Stand-Outs, and One Wildcard
- Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact
- OMH: Backdrop of Industry Fundamentals, Positive Implications
Street Intel on NPS’s Buy Flow—the Key Swing Factor as Korea’s Short-Selling Comeback
- NPS’s aggressive net buying over the past four months? Just a 3% buffer rebalance—not some structural bullish call on K-stocks.
- Street intel points to NPS capping buys in the low-14% range, 1%p below target, only defending against dips. With short selling back on from March 31, further buying looks unlikely.
- With NPS stepping back and retail still weak, no real size remains on the buy side. Short flow could hit harder than expected—time to price it in and adjust positioning.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Feb-2025): HK halts commercial land sales to cure office slump.
- Hong Kong has halted land sales in order to boost the office market within the region.
- Singapore’s Centurion saw their profits more than double to $257M, driven by soaring property valuations.
- Alibaba announces plans to invest a substantial $53 billion in AI infrastructure development.
BBVA/Sabadell: Updated Terms
- Revised Offer Terms: BBVA increased the cash payment to €0.13/Sabadell share (raising total cash outlay to €705 million), while adjusting the exchange ratio to 5.3456 Sabadell shares per BBVA share.
- The deal requires CNMC, CNMV, and government approvals, with market skepticism evident as Sabadell’s market price exceeds the offer value, signaling a low probability of success under current terms.
- Financial Impact on BBVA: The increased cash component raises the estimated CET1 capital impact to 51bps, with potential further dilution if BBVA raises the cash payment to €0.20-€0.30 per share.
BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – On a Convincing Turn
- BFI Finance Indonesia booked a strong finish to FY2024, as bookings increased by YoY and HoH, with the NPF ratio falling at the same time leading to higher revenues.
- The company’s loan growth momentum has picked up considerably as indicated by management in the previous quarter, which should be reassuring for investors, with growth set to continue in 2025.
- BFI Finance Indonesia has yet to see a meaningful contribution from its collaboration with GoTo Gojek Tokopedia, which is a potential future growth driver. Valuations attractive on PBV to ROE.
Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929 JP) – Laying the Groundwork for Sustained Growth
- Well positioned to capitalize on Japan’s intergenerational wealth transfer megatrend – The company continues to demonstrate positive growth momentum as evidenced by the double-digit topline growth in Q1-4 FY12/24.
- The recent Chester Group acquisition should reinforce its position to ride the powerful trend in Japan’s aging demographics and intergenerational wealth transfer.
- We think the company’s strategic approach towards allocating capital to the growth of the business while minimizing shareholder dilution through share buybacks demonstrates a commitment to shareholder value and financial discipline.
Japanese Big Cap Banks – Three Scorecard Stand-Outs, and One Wildcard
- We introduce our Japanese big cap banks scorecard; from this, we pick Resona, Mizuho and SMFG with our wildcard being Shizuoka
- The scorecard metrics measure leverage to higher interest rates, LDRs, levels of cash balances, bond exposures, cross-holdings and valuations; from this, we derive a weighted ranking for each bank
- We remove Concordia from our buy list; we prefer Shizuoka for its better leverage to rising rates and high ratio of cross-holdings to market capitalization with a holdings reduction plan
Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact
- Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.
- Near-Term we wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.
- This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.
OMH: Backdrop of Industry Fundamentals, Positive Implications
- The number of units in the company’s property management segment grew 23% sequentially in 3Q24 to 9,283 from 7,560 at the end of 2Q24.
- OMH attributes this to its expanded presence in the property management space.
- Its goal is to continue to increase the number of units under management, which Ohmyhome believes will contribute to growing Property Management segment and consolidated revenue, in part reflecting cross-promotional opportunities as a growth driver.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
