In today’s briefing:
- Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
- Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (22 Sep)
- NAB (NAB AU) Dislocation Vs. Peers Highlights Mean-Reversion Setup
- BMPS–Mediobanca: Super-Majority Secured; Final Day Setup
- BUY D.R. Horton – The Fed’s First Cut Unlocks a New Cycle for Homebuilders
- Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Accelerates Integration Playbook for Big-Ticket Acquisitions!
- First Citizens National Corporation Reveals Bold Loan & Deposit Growth Strategy – Can It Outpace Rivals?
Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
- The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
- There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
- Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (22 Sep)
- Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
- Highlights: Currently eight pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.
- Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.
NAB (NAB AU) Dislocation Vs. Peers Highlights Mean-Reversion Setup
- Context: The National Australia Bank (NAB AU) vs. VanEck Australian Banks ETF (MVB AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average.
- Highlights: The dislocation highlights the recent outperformance of NAB vs. some of its peers, pointing to a potential underweight in a portfolio context.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
BMPS–Mediobanca: Super-Majority Secured; Final Day Setup
- BMPS has 70.5% of Mediobanca after re-open progress (Reuters, 19 Sep). Window closes 22 Sep; settlement 29 Sep. Gross spread ~1.03% on 19 Sep close; convergence momentum and governance transition.
- Super-Majority enables extraordinary resolutions; merger remains subject to ECB/SSM, Bank of Italy, and corporate approvals. Expect modest final-day tenders; MB to hug offer formula, with delta ≈2.533 to BMPS.
- Trade: convergence hold into final results/29 Sep settlement; maintain tight 2.533 hedge and pre-set rebalance triggers. Directional BMPS bias constructive on lighter dilution/cash; monitor messaging, basis, and any on-market adds.
BUY D.R. Horton – The Fed’s First Cut Unlocks a New Cycle for Homebuilders
- The latest Fed’s rate cut will directly impact the US residential market. With 2 more rate cuts expected in 2025, it will unlock a new cycle for homebuilders
- D.R. Horton is the strongest and most resilient player among the US homebuilders. We think it is well positioned to capture the tailwind from the interest rate cut cycle
- D.R. Horton also demonstrates strong capital management, increasing its dividend and established a share repurchase program over the years
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Accelerates Integration Playbook for Big-Ticket Acquisitions!
- Arthur J.
- Gallagher & Company reported strong performance for the second quarter of 2025, showcasing notable achievements in revenue growth, margin expansion, and continuous double-digit growth in adjusted EBITDAC, continuing a streak into the 21st consecutive quarter.
- The company observed a 16% growth in combined revenue from its Brokerage and Risk Management segments, accompanied by a 5.4% organic revenue growth.
First Citizens National Corporation Reveals Bold Loan & Deposit Growth Strategy – Can It Outpace Rivals?
- First Citizens BancShares reported solid financial results for the second quarter of 2025, showcasing several positive metrics tempered by industry challenges.
- Key highlights include robust net interest income growth, maintaining low net charge-offs, and disciplined cost management.
- Adjusted earnings per share reached $44.78, contributing to an annualized return on equity (ROE) of 11.00% and a return on assets (ROA) of 1.07%.
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