In today’s briefing:
- Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?
- Schloss Bangalore IPO – Growth Has Softened; Corporate Structure Reorganised
- Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN): A Relative Value Play
- Paradigm REIT IPO – Stable Retail Base Facing Near-Term Lease Risks
- CARE Ratings Q4 & FY25 Update: Strong Performance Driven by Ratings and Diversification Gains
- Japan Post Holdings – Waiting for Godot…
- Revolut-Ion Ahead: What To Know Before The $45 Billion Fintech IPO
- IndusInd Bank: Auditors Caught Napping
- Marqeta (MQ): Dinosaur of a Payments Processor
- Industrial Evolution: Adapting to Policies and Innovation
Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?
- The spread to the Foo family’s HK$8.50 offer for Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) has materially increased to 15.8% over the last two trading days. The vote is on 23 May.
- Several readers have asked if the Soundwill offer will mirror the Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) deal break. The two schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
- The share price action either reflects an imminent deal break or a result of a negative feedback loop. Tread carefully as this is a high-risk/high-reward situation.
Schloss Bangalore IPO – Growth Has Softened; Corporate Structure Reorganised
- Schloss Bangalore Ltd (SCHBL IN) is looking to raise about US$409m in its India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier size of around US$600m.
- It is a luxury hospitality company which owns, operates, manages and develops luxury hotels and resorts under ‘The Leela’ brand, through direct ownership and hotel management agreements with third-party owners.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates.
Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN): A Relative Value Play
- The Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
- While one of the two companies displays higher revenue growth, the valuation might begin to become stretched. Fundamental key figures are provided to complement the statistical analysis.
- Trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, risk management strategies, and key events are discussed.
Paradigm REIT IPO – Stable Retail Base Facing Near-Term Lease Risks
- Paradigm REIT (PR) is looking to raise about US$131m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. The deal will be run by Maybank, AmInvestment Bank, and CGS International.
- PR offers stable exposure to well-located retail assets with high occupancy and steady rental growth.
- While lease expiry risks and tenant concentration are concerns, current valuation at 17.4x FY25E P/E and 5.7% yield appears fair, given its higher occupancy and lower gearing than peers.
CARE Ratings Q4 & FY25 Update: Strong Performance Driven by Ratings and Diversification Gains
- CARE Ratings achieved its highest-ever standalone and consolidated income and profitability in FY25, significantly improving margins across the group.
- The results validate the effectiveness of the company’s quality-led growth strategy, operational efficiencies, and strategic investments in non-ratings and international businesses.
- The performance reinforces confidence in Care’s ability to outpace the industry and achieve its diversification targets, supported by strong execution and market positioning.
Japan Post Holdings – Waiting for Godot…
- Does the underperformance since the recent results announcement provide an opportunity?
- While the company strategy is moving in the right direction, the pace of change is slow.
- With ownership of Japan Post Bank reduced to below 50%, there is potential change afoot there
Revolut-Ion Ahead: What To Know Before The $45 Billion Fintech IPO
- With 53 million users, a shiny new UK banking license, and IPO buzz building, now feels like a good moment to take a closer look.
- Revolut’s on track to become one of the world’s most valuable neobanks. Based on a $45 billion valuation, its implied PER is 28x, thanks to expected strong growth rates.
- Assuming revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2030 tapering from 50% to 10%, a simple DCF makes the $45 billion valuation look rich.
IndusInd Bank: Auditors Caught Napping
- Indusind Bank (IIB IN) released their Q4 and FY25 results, which highlighted further episodes of bizarre accounting plays.
- The cumulative impact of material accounting adjustments was INR 26 bn, enough to engulf profits by 50% for the year.
- Noting the same, management and auditors, which were left blindfolded, suggested a possible fraud committed against the bank.
Marqeta (MQ): Dinosaur of a Payments Processor
- The Marqeta house of cards may come tumbling down: an FBI investigation could prompt MQ to lose up to 70% of its business.
- Future revenue looks weak for this “dinosaur” of a payments-processing company.
- Marqeta (MQ) is (mostly) a payment processor. MQ helps fintechs host their own payments tools by contracting with a Banking as a Service (BaaS) partner bank to manage client deposits.
Industrial Evolution: Adapting to Policies and Innovation
- In 2025, Singapore’s Industrials sector saw increased trading activity, with over one-third experiencing over 50% ADT growth.
- ST Engineering led the STI in performance, supported by diversified revenue streams and investments in digital technologies.
- OKP Holdings reported a 95% share price gain, driven by technology integration, productivity boosts, and geographical diversification.
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