In today’s briefing:
- Takeda: A Deep Dive into Takeda’s Dengue Vaccine
- 2023 High Conviction Idea: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Complex Generics and India Business to Drive Growth
- Bionote Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
- Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): Continued Triple-Digit Sales Growth in Q3; 2022 Guidance Raised
- Eli Lilly & Co: The Akouos Acquisition & Other Drivers
- AbbVie Inc: The DJS Antibodies Acquisition & Other Drivers
- Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) – What if Pfizer Loses the China Market in the Future?
Takeda: A Deep Dive into Takeda’s Dengue Vaccine
- Takeda’s dengue vaccine TAK-003/QDENGA has been approved in Indonesia and is awaiting consent from the EU. The company is also seeking approval from the US, Latam and other Asian countries.
- The company plans to launch the vaccine in December or early next year which will become the industry’s first immunisation against dengue after the problems faced by Sanofi’s Dengvaxia.
- In this insight, we take a look at Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) ‘s decade long journey into its dengue vaccine and its potential.
2023 High Conviction Idea: Cipla (CIPLA IN)- Complex Generics and India Business to Drive Growth
- Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) is a strong play in Indian generic pharmaceutical industry, due to its niche and differentiated respiratory and peptide injectable portfolio, which has less competition.
- The company has launched couple of complex respiratory products in the US market, which has accelerated its revenue growth. Multiple high-value launches are also lined up for this year.
- Cipla’s India business is on a strong footing, led by core portfolio tailwind in prescription and trade generics businesses. Q2FY23 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of market beating growth.
Bionote Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
- Bionote (377740 KS) is looking to raise approximately US$200m in its Korean IPO. The IPO would consist of both a primary and secondary selldown.
- Bionote is an integrated producer of diagnostics test products and biocontent products.
- In this note, we will look at deal dynamics, assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.
Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): Continued Triple-Digit Sales Growth in Q3; 2022 Guidance Raised
- Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US) reported strong 3Q22 result, with revenue growing 102% y/y to 131.3 million, beating consensus by $7.5 million. EPS stood at $0.92, beating consensus by 35%.
- Revenue growth was driven by the launch of Shockwave C2, in the U.S. in February 2021, continued recovery from the pandemic impact, and increased adoption of Shockwave products.
- Shockwave now expects 2022 revenue of $483–488 million, representing 104–106% y/y growth. This compares to previous revenue guidance of $465–475 million and current consensus of $478.9 million.
Eli Lilly & Co: The Akouos Acquisition & Other Drivers
- Eli Lilly’s stock has been on a roll off-late in a relatively challenging market environment and the company supported it with a solid result surpassing Wall Street expectations on all counts.
- They have continued to invest in expanding their manufacturing base to fulfill the rising demand for their products and prepare for upcoming launches.
- In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.
AbbVie Inc: The DJS Antibodies Acquisition & Other Drivers
- AbbVie’s results for the past quarter were mixed and the company failed to meet Wall Street expectations with respect to its revenues but managed an earnings beat.
- The management also observed a persistently strong double-digit operational sales growth from several other significant products, including Botox Cosmetic, Vraylar, Venclexta, and Botox Therapeutic.
- This market growth is anticipated to primarily affect Juvederm and AbbVie’s body contouring portfolio products, which have higher consumer price points.
Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) – What if Pfizer Loses the China Market in the Future?
- If excluding the contribution from COVID-19 related products, Pfizer’s performance growth could have been quite pessimistic. In terms of BD, Pfizer is “a big buyer” but the return is questionable.
- We haven’t seen any blockbuster new products in Pfizer’s pipeline that can make up for the losses caused by VBP/NRDL negotiation in China. Price reduction seems the only way out.
- We cannot rule out that Pfizer may lose the China market in the event of further deterioration of Sino-US relations. This is a problem investors need to consider in advance.
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