In today’s briefing:
- WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) Placement: Strong Momentum & Index Flows
- Wuxi AppTec Placement – Momentum Is Very Strong, Though It Is a Bit Opportunistic
- Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: Reference Period About to End; Some Changes to Expectations
- Eastenova (东方妍美) Pre-IPO: Recalibration of Potentials
- Bavarian Nordic: Event-Driven Bid with Strategic Block, Bull Case Supports Sweetening
- All GLP-1 Gains Have Now Been Erased from Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO US)
- Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- Molina Healthcare Is Bracing for a Medicaid Shake-Up—Here’s Why It Might Come Out Stronger!
- Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Strategic Brands Drive Q1 Result; Positive Momentum to Continue
- Grifols – Operational Recovery Reduces Urgency for a Takeover
WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) Placement: Strong Momentum & Index Flows
- WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) is looking to raise US$650m at a price range of HK$104.16-106.4/share, a 5-7% discount from last close.
- There will be passive buying from global index trackers around the time of settlement of the placement shares. Then there will be some Hang Seng Index buying in August.
- Short interest in WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) has spiked and some shorts could cover into the placement. The AH premium could move higher following the placement.
Wuxi AppTec Placement – Momentum Is Very Strong, Though It Is a Bit Opportunistic
- WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) aims to raise around US$650m via its H-share placement.
- The stock has been on a roll this year and recently announced strong earnings as well. Although it’s now trading at its 52-week highs.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: Reference Period About to End; Some Changes to Expectations
- NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
- In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices during the September 2025 index rebal event.
- We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 based on current data. We see US$1.2bn a side to trade.
Eastenova (东方妍美) Pre-IPO: Recalibration of Potentials
- Eastenova, a China-based regenerative medicine specialist, is looking to raise at least US$100 million via a Hong Kong listing. The sole bookrunner is CCBI.
- In this note, we take a look at the company’s core product, XH301.
- Our research suggests that recalibration of the company’s potential is necessary given the intense competition and market deceleration.
Bavarian Nordic: Event-Driven Bid with Strategic Block, Bull Case Supports Sweetening
- Bavarian Nordic’s board recommends a DKK 233/share bid, but ATP’s 10% block and market premium pricing suggest anticipation of a higher offer or strategic alternatives.
- The offer undervalues Bavarian Nordic’s scalable platform, outbreak-response contracts, and optionality; a fair value of DKK 255–265 is justified, with a bull case up to DKK 330/share.
- Deal spread trades negative as market expects sweetening; low irrevocables and strategic buyer risk suggest asymmetry for long positions with regulatory and ATP dynamics as key catalysts.
All GLP-1 Gains Have Now Been Erased from Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO US)
- Novo Nordisk A/S drops 23% after the latest profit warnings
- All GLP-1gains have now been erased and it is back to 2022 price levels
- It is currently cheap, but we are not sure this is the end of the bad news
Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- In Q1 FY03/26, the company reported YoY declines in revenue and profit, with revenue at JPY22.3bn (-3.8% YoY).
- The company achieved 19.7% of its full-year FY03/26 revenue target, maintaining its initial forecast despite Q1 shortfall.
- Domestic revenue was JPY20.5bn (-1.8% YoY), while overseas revenue was JPY1.7bn (-23.2% YoY).
Molina Healthcare Is Bracing for a Medicaid Shake-Up—Here’s Why It Might Come Out Stronger!
- Molina Healthcare presented its second quarter 2025 results, shedding light on its current business landscape and future expectations.
- The earnings report revealed adjusted earnings per share of $5.48 with premium revenue totaling around $10.9 billion.
- The consolidated Medical Care Ratio (MCR) was reported at 90.4%, while the adjusted pretax margin stood at 3.3%.
Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Strategic Brands Drive Q1 Result; Positive Momentum to Continue
- Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) reported 7% revenue growth in Q1FY26. Strategic brands grew 49% and contributed 22% of revenue. Driven by cost optimization, core operating profit increased 61%.
- Astellas reiterated FY26 guidance of 1% revenue growth and 5% core operating profit increase. Q1FY26 progress enhance conviction on comfortably meet FY26 guidance.
- With no near-term new launches anticipated for Astellas, performance of the strategic brands in existing markets as well as their indication and geography expansions should be the key drivers.
Grifols – Operational Recovery Reduces Urgency for a Takeover
- Standalone recovery in motion: With EBITDA up 12.7% and leverage falling to 4.2x net, Grifols is executing its deleveraging plan and reinstating dividends—removing the urgency for external capital or ownership change.
- Deal pressure eases: Brookfield may still see long-term strategic value, but improved financials, family control, and strong liquidity reduce the probability of a near-term offer or “rescue bid.”
- Risks remain priced in: Governance opacity, dollar exposure, and still-elevated leverage could limit rerating. M&A optionality persists—but is no longer the base case driving the investment thesis.
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