In today’s briefing:
- AMMN IJ – Transitional Trough in 9M25; FY26 Mining Upside, Index Overhang Persists
AMMN IJ – Transitional Trough in 9M25; FY26 Mining Upside, Index Overhang Persists
- FY25 is the trough: weak smelter ramp (3–39%) and export ban drive losses; recovery depends on utilisation >50% in FY26.
- FY26 mining strong, smelter unclear: 220 kt Cu and 579 koz Au guided, but smelter repairs run through H1’26.
- Index risk rising: gold share <20% puts AMMN at high risk of GDX/MVGDX exclusion, with US$140–200m passive outflows.
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