Daily BriefsIndonesia

Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Negara Indonesia Persero, XL Axiata and more

In today’s briefing:

  • Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) Stands Out
  • XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) – Reasons to Be Cheerful


Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) Stands Out

By Victor Galliano

  • Negara’s attractive valuations, its low PEG ratio and efficiency ratio should drive the share re-rating; pre- and post-provision were flat QoQ, but profitability ratios edged higher over the medium term
  • We like Mandiri for its attractive PE multiples and its robust credit quality, despite the 4Q24 returns blip; Mandiri has the second-best efficiency ratio and with further scope for gains
  • Rakyat’s high structural cost of risk remains a drag on its post-provision returns, with eroded further in 4Q24; although declining, returns are high but Rakyat valuations are not yet compelling

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) – Reasons to Be Cheerful

By Angus Mackintosh

  • XL Axiata 4Q2024 results were solid despite lingering price competition in 4Q2024, especially from Telkomsel but this now looks to have abated with higher data pricing likely in 2025.
  • The company saw its revenues driven by increasing data traffic and higher ARPUs but XL also grew its subscriber numbers last year despite increasing data pricing ahead of competitors.
  • The FREN merger is ongoing with the completion due by end1H2025, with its Link Net restructuring complete, boosting its fixed broadband business. Valuations attractive with easing competition in 2025.

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