In today’s briefing:
- CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go
- Korean Market Election Setup: Locals’ Low PBR Trading Trends
- CATL A/H Listing – High Quality, Large Size Make It Unavoidable but Needs a Discount
- CATL H Share Listing (3750 HK): Valuation Insights
- [Japan M&A] Bain Deal for Nissin (9066) Is Still Light Vs Comparable Deals
- Nissin Corp (9066 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY8,100 Is Arguably Light
- BEL: Earnings Firepower in Place, Rerating Looks Done
- Asia File : Risk Reward Asymmetrical
- CATL A/H Listing – More like ADR Secondary Listing than an A/H Listing – Performance & Subscription
- Recruit: Weakening Labour Markets and More Downside Ahead
CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) could raise up to US$5.1bn in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
- There is a huge allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That significantly reduces float and the probability of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
- CATL (3750 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 16 June following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.
Korean Market Election Setup: Locals’ Low PBR Trading Trends
- Quick screen shows ₩1T+ names under 0.4x PBR — mostly retail, financials, and holdcos. Locals are keeping an eye on these with the election theme in play.
- This isn’t just hopeful chatter — both parties are seriously leaning into value-up policies. With dividend tax reform and solid sector catalysts, locals see real potential in the post-election trade.
- Long regional banks, hedge with KB and Shinhan. In retail, long domestic names, short China-dependent ones. For holdcos, long Hanwha and Doosan, short CJ and Kolon.
CATL A/H Listing – High Quality, Large Size Make It Unavoidable but Needs a Discount
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) , one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise around US$4bn in its H-share listing.
- CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.
CATL H Share Listing (3750 HK): Valuation Insights
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has launched its H Share listing at a maximum price of HK$263. Pricing will be on 19 May, and the listing on 20 May.
- I discussed the H Share listing in CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case, CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views, CATL H Share Listing: PHIP Reinforces the Investment Case.
- Our valuation analysis suggests that the low AH discount can be justified. We would participate in the listing.
[Japan M&A] Bain Deal for Nissin (9066) Is Still Light Vs Comparable Deals
- The deal price is higher than the Bloomberg article insinuated. The closing date is earlier than the Bloomberg article suggested. But that doesn’t mean it’s enough.
- The Large ToSTNeT-3 buyback last year changed the shareholder structure significantly, but many holders who sold are unknown. I would expect they were cross-holders.
- For that, this deal is NOT a done deal. There may be games played on this deal.
Nissin Corp (9066 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at JPY8,100 Is Arguably Light
- Nissin Corp (9066 JP) has recommended a Bain-sponsored MBO tender offer of JPY8,100 per share, a 27.6% premium to the last close.
- The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. However, it is light compared to precedent transaction multiples.
- While the offer represents an all-time high, it is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. A counterbid cannot be ruled out.
BEL: Earnings Firepower in Place, Rerating Looks Done
- Strong Execution: 3-yr PAT CAGR of ~22% with ₹80,354 Cr order book offers 2–4 years of revenue visibility from high-margin defence programs.
- Growth Levers: Expanding in seekers, EW, AI, and smart infra; 5 new units and key contracts like Akash, LRSAM, and Shakti drive forward pipeline.
- Valuation Stretch: Trading at ~45x FY25E P/E vs 3-yr average of 32x; pricing reflects peak sentiment and leaves little room for error.
Asia File : Risk Reward Asymmetrical
- Trades below Cash and liquidation value and has a profitable operating business
- Operations have been consistently profitable and free cash flow generating
- Industry is not growing but getting consolidated. Market is pricing in a business to become zero
CATL A/H Listing – More like ADR Secondary Listing than an A/H Listing – Performance & Subscription
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) , one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise around US$4bn in its H-share listing.
- CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
- In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing and how it compares to some of the past listings.
Recruit: Weakening Labour Markets and More Downside Ahead
- Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 4Q and Full-year FY03/2025 results on Friday which fell below consensus estimates. However, earnings were in line with the company’s guidance.
- Labour markets have begun to cool off with concerns over potential impact of trade wars and economic uncertainty, and the company expects top line to decline in FY03/2026E.
- Though the company’s monetisation efforts have paid off, we expect Recruit’s earnings to remain under pressure and think there’s opportunity to gain on the Short side.
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