In today’s briefing:
- *NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance
- Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility
- Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)
- Lalatech IPO | Review of FY24 Financials & OpStats | Mostly Solid Numbers | Plus a Few Questions
*NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance
- Biden’s USTR came out with a flawed Section 301 report on Chinese maritime “dominance” in January. It is not that China shipbuilding is not dominant, but the report was flawed.
- In February/March (flawed) measures were proposed. Then mostly minimally-insightful hearings were held. Then Trump came out with an Executive Order “Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance” (that requires looking back 80yrs).
- Now we have new USTR Proposed Measures which water down the old ones quite considerably.
Adani Ports: Riding the Global Ports Wave with Scale, Margin, and Visibility
- NQXT brings structural leverage: 35 MMT of throughput, 65% EBITDA margin, and zero-debt funding makes this a clean, long-cycle infrastructure asset. Pro forma FY27E EV/EBITDA compresses to 12.6x; P/E 19x.
- FY25 guidance upgraded: Revenue now pegged at Rs29,000–31,000 Cr (vs Rs26,000–27,000 Cr earlier), EBITDA at Rs18,800–18,900 Cr, and cargo volume at 460–480 MMT — upper band implies a strong Q4.
- Trades at 12.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA, APSEZ offers growth, operating leverage, and global strategic footprint and ramping port utilization. Likely disruptions in trade flows post Trump tariffs is a risk.
Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)
- For the first time since Q322, our price momentum index flipped to negative
- We see few signs of US tariff impacts in the March data — not surprising
- New US levies on China-built ships unhelpful, but most carriers can adjust
Lalatech IPO | Review of FY24 Financials & OpStats | Mostly Solid Numbers | Plus a Few Questions
- FY24 revenue growth of 19% solid, but mostly driven by one operating segment
- Gross margin in FY24 fell on mix, but platform monetization down, too
- Sharp growth in FY24 working capital requires investors’ close attention
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