Daily Brief Industrials: Daihatsu Diesel Mfg, Ashok Leyland, International Consolidated Air, GXO Logistics, Inpost, MillerKnoll, Sunrun Inc, Trimas Corp, Core & Main and more

• Daihatsu Diesel Mfg (6023 JP) is down sharply today – much more than indices – as autos/tech fall on US auto tariffs. There may be some GPIF unwinds as well. 
• A reminder: Despite the name, Daihatsu Diesel is not an auto name, is growing, has a big order book, and minimal direct exposure to the US. 
• The Tender settles today. The 8% overhang from Tendered-But-Unsold Shares is an opportunity, not a burden, at 7.2x ex-cash PER.

• Ashok Leyland (AL IN) plans to shut manufacturing at its UK EV subsidiary, Switch Mobility UK, and shift focus to India and UAE plants.
• The UK exit curbs cash burn and earnings drag, while Switch India, driven by rising demand, nears breakeven with 1800+ e-Bus orders and 80%+ e-LCV share.
• This marks a value-accretive pivot, realigning capital to India’s high-growth EV market and improving group-level profitability and return metrics.

International Airlines Group (IAG) enjoys the tailwinds of structural demand growth in an industry that is becoming more structurally profitable, being well positioned in some of the largest and most attractive markets, and with a portfolio of leading brands catering to the value requirements of its customers. While IAG already has industry-leading profitability, management is transforming it by investing in network expansion, customer service and operational efficiency to drive sustainable revenue growth and increase free cash flow.

• GXO Logistics, Inc. recently announced its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings, highlighting a period marked by robust growth, strategic achievements, and ongoing challenges.
• The company reported record revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the year, with a 30% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter alone.
• Full-year revenue reached $11.7 billion, reflecting a 20% growth from the previous year, with 3% coming from organic growth.

• A summary of InPost’s FY24 results against consensus estimates and last year’s full year is presented in the table below.
• InPost expects revenue to grow n the high-teens to low twenties range, and will surpass market volume growth in all our geographies, just like it did last year.
• Adjusted EBITDA is foreseen to increase in the low to mid-twenties. 

International Airlines Group (IAG) enjoys the tailwinds of structural demand growth in an industry that is becoming more structurally profitable, being well positioned in some of the largest and most attractive markets, and with a portfolio of leading brands catering to the value requirements of its customers. While IAG already has industry-leading profitability, management is transforming it by investing in network expansion, customer service and operational efficiency to drive sustainable revenue growth and increase free cash flow.

• MLKN posted 3QFY25 adjusted EPS of $0.44, $0.01 below our estimate and 3QFY24 on weaker-than-expected revenue offset by better margins.
• Total revenue came in $43 million lower than expected, with growth in Global Retail of 3.9% partially offsetting a decline in International Contract of 1.5% and modest growth in North America Contract of 1.7% on an organic basis.
• Given how leading indicators in North America Contract had been trending positive over the past several quarters, we expected stronger revenue growth in 3QFY25.

• Sunrun’s earnings for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024 presents a complex blend of progress and challenges, demonstrating the company’s navigational agility within a dynamic industry landscape.
• The company reported strong quarterly performance, implementing strategic measures to enhance its operational and financial standing while managing market uncertainties.
• The positives highlight Sunrun’s ability to adapt and innovate amid a rising interest rate environment and evolving state regulations.

• TriMas Corporation’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results illustrate a company managing complexity across its diverse business segments while setting strategic groundwork for potential future improvements.
• The fourth quarter showed several positive trends in financial and operational metrics, with consolidated sales up by 8.8% year-over-year, largely driven by strong performances in its Packaging and Aerospace segments.
• In the Packaging segment, which accounts for 55% of total sales, TriMas achieved nearly 10% organic growth, particularly propelled by the beauty and personal care categories.

• Core & Main reported strong financial performance for the fiscal year 2024, marked by significant sales growth and strategic changes in the executive leadership team.
• Sales increased by 18% in the fourth quarter, supported by a 9% contribution from acquisitions, and organic growth in average daily sales.
• The company maintained stable gross margins and saw a slight increase in SG&A expenses, despite inflationary pressures, primarily due to acquisitions and additional costs associated with an extra selling week.