In today’s briefing:
- [Japan Buybacks] – Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1
- [Quiddity Index] TOPIX July 2025 FFW Rebalance – $3bn+ a Side to Trade
- [Japan LolWut?] Ikuyo (7273) Says “Iku Yo!” – Bitcoin, M&A, Weirdness, More
- Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525): Niche Leader in Batch Deposition Tools
- Tosei Corp (8923 JP): 1H FY11/25 flash update
- Full Report – PCI Holdings (3918 JP) – 2025.6.25
- The Change in Record Date Is Difficult, and Most AGMs Next Year Will Be Held in June
[Japan Buybacks] – Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1
- Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.
- The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question.
- But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.
[Quiddity Index] TOPIX July 2025 FFW Rebalance – $3bn+ a Side to Trade
- Four times a year, the TSE reassesses free float weights for listed stocks. Indices run by the TSE adjust their index shares (shares out x FFW x coefficient) in Jan/Apr/Jul/October.
- Yesterday, the TSE announced its changes for this quarter. Combined with other adjustments on 30 July at the close, we expect 190+ events.
- For now, we expect the trade is about US$3.3bn a side. At the top of the buy side, 16 names with more than $30mm to buy, averaging 5x ADV.
[Japan LolWut?] Ikuyo (7273) Says “Iku Yo!” – Bitcoin, M&A, Weirdness, More
- Several Japanese companies jumped onto the OBaaBM/TABaaBM (Own/Talk-About-Bitcoin-as-a-Business Model) last fall to this spring as Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) shares went up and bitcoin did too.
- Yesterday, resin coating/injection molding product maker Ikuyo Co Ltd (7273 JP) announced an M&A Policy, and a Shareholder Benefits Program where shareholders will “win” amounts of bitcoin by lottery.
- Ikuyo expects revenues +955% this year. Details are sparse. The shareholder structure has red flags. The CEO sold himself half the company in Feb for peanuts. Forewarned. But it’s interesting.
Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525): Niche Leader in Batch Deposition Tools
- Kokusai has delivered steady growth, with revenue rising from ¥181.8B in FY2021 to ¥238.9B in FY2025 and a strong rebound in profitability.
- It plans to expand capacity, grow service revenue beyond 35%, and launch next-gen tools for GAA logic and 3D memory.
- At ~22x P/E and 12.5x EV/EBITDA, valuations appear fair given its scale, but upside exists if GAA traction and service leverage play out.
Tosei Corp (8923 JP): 1H FY11/25 flash update
- Revenue increased by 14.6% YoY to JPY66.1bn, with operating profit rising 18.1% YoY to JPY17.6bn.
- The company revised its full-year forecast, lowering revenue by 3.9% but raising operating profit by 4.7%.
- Assets under management reached JPY2.67tn, exceeding fiscal year-end targets, driven by new asset management contracts.
Full Report – PCI Holdings (3918 JP) – 2025.6.25
- PCI Holdings, Inc. (hereafter, the Company) is an IT provider of IT-related services and hardware, mainly focusing on embedded system technology such as embedded software, embedded computers.
- Though it is a relatively young company, born in 2005, it has grown up to be large enough to have net sales of JPY 25.1 bn for FY2024/9 with approximately 1,600 employees, along with organic growth and the acquisition of many companies.
- Going forward, it will change the corporate structure and make it more profitable by investing its cashflow from its core businesses, the Engineering Business and the Product/Device Business, into the ICT Solutions Business, which has considerable potential growth fields such as solution development using AI, IoT platform and the like.
The Change in Record Date Is Difficult, and Most AGMs Next Year Will Be Held in June
- T&D Holdings and HOYA, two March fiscal year-end companies that filed their annual securities reports more than 2 weeks ago this year, have previously filed their reports 2-3 weeks earlier.
- Only two companies will revise articles of incorporation this year and postpone the record date. Most companies will hold AGM in June next year and file reports just before AGM.
- Since institutional investors decide their votes based on various aspects of the company as a whole, companies should disclose their annual securities reports well in advance of AGM.
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