In today’s briefing:
- [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL, Less Certain Than Before
- JX Advanced Metals (5714 JP) – Dominant in Sputtering, Recycling Pivot, Valuations Lag Peers
- ASICS (7936) | Nike Q4 Preview: Eyes on Margins and Momentum
[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL, Less Certain Than Before
- I published a Sep25 Nikkei 225 prediction list last Wednesday. By Friday, we had a new paradigm due to an ad hoc change. That new paradigm informs the September selection.
- As it is, I expect one (1) ADD (Shift Inc (3697 JP)) and one (1) DELETE (Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)) – a prediction which change on a corporate announcement.
- My confidence on the ADD is a little lower due to the implications of the choice of Rohm. And the interesting ECM trade for September remains Sony Financial.
JX Advanced Metals (5714 JP) – Dominant in Sputtering, Recycling Pivot, Valuations Lag Peers
- Listed in March 2025 via Japan’s largest IPO since SoftBank 2018, JX Advanced Metals has since accelerated recycling, governance restructuring, and potential Toho Titanium consolidation.
- A global leader in high-purity sputtering targets (35–40% share) and thin film materials, it is scaling capacity and deepening foundry partnerships (TSMC, Samsung) to capture long-term semiconductor growth.
- Despite strong positioning, it trades at just ~7x EV/EBITDA FY25E—below peers—offering structural growth at value multiples amid recovering earnings and strategic asset backing.
ASICS (7936) | Nike Q4 Preview: Eyes on Margins and Momentum
- Nike reports Q4 earnings Thursday. Focus for ASICS investors: (1) Sales momentum recovery, (2) Gross margin trends.
- Nike’s continued weakness (global footwear sales -8% YoY in MRQ) supports bullish near-term thesis on ASICS.
- However, signs of stabilization at Nike could signal increasing competitive pressure in H2/FY26.
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