In today’s briefing:
- Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)
- Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Mitsumi’s (6479 JP) White Knight Tender Offer at JPY4,500
- Fast Retailing (9983) | Japan Delivers as Tariffs Start to Impact
- Suzuki Motor Placement Updates – Relative Correction Has Been Decent so Far. But Lacks Buyback
- Tariff Part II: Canada-Mexico Web Ensnares US; USTMA Projects Higher Volume
- Nakamoto Packs (7811 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
- WingArc1st Inc (4432 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
- Koshidaka Holdings (2157 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update
- Shift Inc (3697 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update
- Can Growth Market Reform Succeed in a Structure of Interdependence of IPO Ecosystem Stakeholders?
Minebea Mitsumi Overbids Yageo for Shibaura Electronics (6957)
- In early February, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) made an unsolicited bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) at ¥4,300/share. They had approached in October 2024, and continued approaches through end-January.
- Shibaura’s bankers approached Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) in January. Due diligence, then bids. They bid ¥4,600. Not enough said the SC. Then Trump. Then ¥4,400. Now ¥4,500 accepted 9 April.
- But Trump tariffs relief came 9 April US time. And the Offer Price is below the mid-point of ALL three different financial advisors. I think this is not done yet.
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Minebea Mitsumi’s (6479 JP) White Knight Tender Offer at JPY4,500
- Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) at JPY4,500 per share, a 4.7% premium to Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s JPY4,300 hostile offer.
- The offer is scheduled to start on 23 April, ahead of Yageo’s 7 May start. The Board intends to recommend the Minebea offer and oppose the Yageo offer.
- Due to its low premium to the Yageo offer, at least another bidding round is highly probable, and the Minebea offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation.
Fast Retailing (9983) | Japan Delivers as Tariffs Start to Impact
- Strong Q2 beat: Revenue rose 14% YoY and OP jumped 33%, driven by Japan strength and solid winter sales, offsetting China’s continued weakness.
- Guidance tweak: FY business profit raised to ¥540bn, though H2 expectations effectively lowered due to anticipated US tariff impact.
- US expansion continues: 69 stores now open; North America accounts for 7.5% of sales, with future margin mitigation via supply chain shifts and EU/Asia growth.
Suzuki Motor Placement Updates – Relative Correction Has Been Decent so Far. But Lacks Buyback
- Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) and Sompo Holdings (8630 JP) aim to raise around US1.15bn (including over-allotment) via selling around 5% of Suzuki Motor (7269 JP).
- While Suzuki doesn’t have much direct exposure to the US markets, its shares had corrected in line with other auto players going into the deal launch.
- In this note, we compare the deal to some of the past deals and talk about the updates since our last note.
Tariff Part II: Canada-Mexico Web Ensnares US; USTMA Projects Higher Volume
- Components crossing US–Mexico–Canada corridor face disruption
- Reshoring production to US would involve multi-year lead times
- USTMA expects U.S. tire shipments of 340.4 million units in 2025
Nakamoto Packs (7811 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
- FY02/25 results: Revenue JPY49.1bn (+10.8% YoY), operating profit JPY2.9bn (+58.2% YoY), net income JPY2.0bn (+90.1% YoY).
- FY02/26 forecast: Revenue JPY52.0bn (+5.8% YoY), operating profit JPY3.0bn (+5.4% YoY), net income JPY2.0bn (flat YoY).
- Dividend projections: FY02/25 JPY66.0 per share, FY02/26 JPY68.0 per share, payout ratio 30.2% (FY02/25: 29.3%).
WingArc1st Inc (4432 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update
- In FY02/25, revenue was JPY28.7bn (+11.5% YoY), operating profit JPY8.2bn (+12.4% YoY), and EBITDA JPY9.7bn (+12.2% YoY).
- BDS sales revenue rose 13.7% YoY to JPY18.8bn, with cloud services revenue growing 18.8% YoY.
- For FY02/26, the company forecasts revenue of JPY30.3bn (+5.5% YoY) and operating profit of JPY8.9bn (+8.3% YoY).
Koshidaka Holdings (2157 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update
- In 1H FY08/25, Koshidaka Holdings posted revenue of JPY34.0bn (+11.2% YoY) and operating profit of JPY5.1bn (+5.8% YoY).
- The company opened 23 facilities, closed five, totaling 682 facilities, with an average of 26.8 rooms per facility.
- Personnel expenses rose by 12.8% YoY, rent by 12.7% YoY, and SG&A expenses to JPY3.5bn (+7.0% YoY).
Shift Inc (3697 JP): 1H FY08/25 flash update
- In 1H FY08/25, the company reported sales of JPY61.7bn, operating profit of JPY8.1bn, and net income of JPY4.5bn.
- Software Testing Related Services segment recorded JPY39.6bn in sales, JPY14.6bn gross profit, and JPY10.5bn operating profit.
- Software Development Related Services segment achieved JPY19.7bn sales, JPY5.1bn gross profit, and JPY1.6bn operating profit.
Can Growth Market Reform Succeed in a Structure of Interdependence of IPO Ecosystem Stakeholders?
- TSE seems reluctant to raise the market capitalization criteria for listing on Growth Market, but wants to encourage management to grow after IPO by raising the criteria for maintaining listing.
- The reason why companies don’t grow after IPO is that IPOs are often conducted for tax savings for founders and for other reasons without any intention to grow.
- It is questionable whether the new listing maintenance criteria will help these companies grow and whether the verbal intervention in the listing review process will be successful.
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