In today’s briefing:
- [Japan M&A] YAGEO Extends Shibaura TOB Limbo at FSA/METI/BOJ Request on FEFTA
- Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Strong Cash Flows, Weak Growth Despite Portfolio Shift
- Nikkei: Failed Breakout and Summer Seasonals Signal Opportunity
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- Onward Holdings (8016 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update
[Japan M&A] YAGEO Extends Shibaura TOB Limbo at FSA/METI/BOJ Request on FEFTA
- YAGEO’s deal for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) had been extended a couple of times – once for Shibaura’s yuho, and once for Taiwan Investment Commission Approval.
- YAGEO had re-filed its notification for FEFTA on 2 June, and the “normal” 30 day waiting period expired 1 July. YAGEO extended by 4 business days to 15 July.
- The TRS amendment was less informative than the TDNET release today. That’s worth reading. More waiting ahead. But the timing may be politically strategic.
Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Strong Cash Flows, Weak Growth Despite Portfolio Shift
- Mitsui & Co. has delivered robust earnings and cash flows, fueled by commodity tailwinds and disciplined capital returns over the last 5 years.
- Looking ahead, the company plans to rebalance its portfolio through increased exposure to LNG and energy transition assets
- However, muted near-term growth and persistently low ROCE—driven by scattered, low-control holdings—suggest limited upside until newer investments begin contributing meaningfully to the bottom line.
Nikkei: Failed Breakout and Summer Seasonals Signal Opportunity
- Seasonal weakness and failure at highs support a tactical short.
- July has historically been weak for the Nikkei in both price and realized vol; Trump-era data showed summer vol was suppressed.
- We propose a tactical trade that aligns with the current setup and supportive price and volatility seasonals.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group
- The UST curve bear-steepened yesterday, alongside a selloff in long-dated UK gilts. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.79%, while that on the 10Y UST climbed 4 bps to 4.28%.
- Equities advanced after US President Donald Trump announced that he had reached a trade deal with Vietnam. The S&P 500 was up 0.5% to a fresh record of 6,227, while the Nasdaq rose 0.9% to 20,393.
Onward Holdings (8016 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update
- Sales increased 17.1% YoY to JPY60.2bn, driven by Domestic Business growth and strategic brand strengthening.
- Operating profit rose 5.5% YoY to JPY5.4bn, with improved profitability and higher gross profit margin despite increased SG&A expenses.
- Overseas Business sales fell 14.0% YoY to JPY3.5bn, but operating loss narrowed due to improved profitability in Asia and the US.
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