In today’s briefing:
- [Japan M&A] Minebea Forces a Game of Regulatory Chicken on Shibaura (6957 JP)
- Topcon (7732 JP) – KKR–JIC Take‑Private at ¥3,300/Share: Base Case Tender, Limited Bump Probability
- Seibu Holdings (9024 JP) – Fare Hike, Tourism Rebound, and Deep Value
- Japanese Midcap Banks – Introducing the Scorecard and Quarterly Return Trends
[Japan M&A] Minebea Forces a Game of Regulatory Chicken on Shibaura (6957 JP)
- Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) has bid ¥6,200/share for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). The tender ends 28 August. YAGEO has over bid now to ¥6,635/share.
- YAGEO’s regulatory clearance decision may not arrive before 1 September, after the Minebea tender closes. Minebea now says they will neither bump nor extend.
- Minebea is hoping people will throw in the towel and tender because if their tender ends and Yageo’s fails, it might a long way down. There are possibilities but… scary.
Topcon (7732 JP) – KKR–JIC Take‑Private at ¥3,300/Share: Base Case Tender, Limited Bump Probability
- The Deal: KKR and JIC are taking Topcon (7732 JP) private via a ¥3,300/share tender offer (~100% premium), with CEO Eto and ValueAct reinvesting.
- Likely Outcome: The offer is highly likely to succeed, with minimal regulatory risk and low probability of a price bump.
- Investor Action: Shareholders should tender into the offer to lock in value, as risk‑reward does not justify holding out.
Seibu Holdings (9024 JP) – Fare Hike, Tourism Rebound, and Deep Value
- Q1 FY26: Sales up +6% YoY but profits softer on transport and hotel margins.
- Guidance Raised: FY26 OP lifted +20% on fare hikes, ridership recovery, and real estate monetization.
- Valuation: At ¥5,268, shares trade at a 47% discount to SoTP (¥9,916)
Japanese Midcap Banks – Introducing the Scorecard and Quarterly Return Trends
- We incorporate our scorecard into this report covering ten Japanese midcap banks and we also introduce trailing twelve month return trends for the midcaps
- Iyogin Holdings remains a buy, which tops pre-provision returns and has large strategic cross-holdings; Hokuhoku Financial and Hachijuni Bank are also buys with these occupying the top three scorecard rankings
- We add Hirogin Holdings to the buy list; it is deep value among the peer group, with its premium earnings and dividend yield and its attractive ROE to PBV ratio
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