In today’s briefing:
- Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock
Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock
- Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?
- In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure.
- Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.
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