In today’s briefing:
- Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
- Merger Arb Mondays (22 Sep) – Technopro, Soft99, Mandom, Pacific Ind, Dongfeng, Shengjing, Smartpay
- Ibiden: From Cyclical Supplier to Core AI Infrastructure Enabler
- Hamee: “Demerger Arbitrage” Setup Remains On Track
- SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP): Akuugo Approval Awaited; Plans Negotiation for Ischemic Stroke Trials
Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows
- The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)‘s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
- There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.
- Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.
Merger Arb Mondays (22 Sep) – Technopro, Soft99, Mandom, Pacific Ind, Dongfeng, Shengjing, Smartpay
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), Joy City Property (207 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP).
Ibiden: From Cyclical Supplier to Core AI Infrastructure Enabler
- Ibiden is transitioning from a cyclical electronics supplier to a core AI infrastructure enabler, with Nvidia-linked package substrates at the heart of its growth strategy.
- Management expects AI substrate demand to nearly double in FY25 and is targeting a 150% production increase by 2027, underpinned by the Ono plant ramp from next month.
- Despite ~18–19% EPS/EBITDA CAGR through FY27 and margins comparable to high-premium peers, Ibiden still trades at mid-tier multiples (21× forward P/E, ~6× EV/EBITDA), leaving scope for re-rating.
Hamee: “Demerger Arbitrage” Setup Remains On Track
- Hamee reported earnings on September 12, and the stock traded down ~6%.
- The headline earnings looked awful but they included many one time and/or non cash expenses.
- To me, the underlying business looks strong. The spin-off is on track for early November, and I expect it to serve as a hard catalyst to drive shares higher.
SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP): Akuugo Approval Awaited; Plans Negotiation for Ischemic Stroke Trials
- SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP) incurred ¥1.3B R&D expenses (+31% YoY) in H1FY26 related to receiving approval of partial changes to the items approved for manufacture and marketing for Akuugo.
- Operating loss went up to ¥1.9B in H1FY26 from ¥1.6B in H1FY25. SanBio revised FY26 guidance of operating loss to ¥3.9B (vs ¥3.5B) and net loss to ¥4.0B (vs ¥3.6B).
- Partial change application already filed and the approval is expected in H2FY26. Plans to negotiate with regulatory authorities in Japan and US toward new clinical trials for chronic ischemic stroke.
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