In today’s briefing:
- Toei Animation Placement: Expensive, but Owns Valuable IP
- [Japan ECM] Toei Animation (4816) Not as Interesting An Offering As It Could Have Been
- Mandom (4917 JP): A Light CVC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO
- Metaplanet (3350) – 50% Dilution or 50% Accretion?
- Trial: Bringing Competition to Convenience Stores?
Toei Animation Placement: Expensive, but Owns Valuable IP
- Toei Animation (4816 JP) ’s shareholder, Fuji Media, is looking to raise around US$210m from a secondary placement.
- The deal is a large one to digest, representing 41.7 days of the stock’s three month ADV and 4.9% of the shares outstanding.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
[Japan ECM] Toei Animation (4816) Not as Interesting An Offering As It Could Have Been
- In Feb 2024, I wrote Toei Animation (4816 JP) – This Offering Could Be Heavy; the NEXT Offering Is More Interesting.
- Today, the company announced another offering where Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP) is selling 10.575mm shares in an overseas offering priced likely tomorrow.
- It is not as interesting as I had expected. But it means the NEXT offering could be more interesting. But there is index buying long-term anyway.
Mandom (4917 JP): A Light CVC-Sponsored Preconditional MBO
- Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has recommended a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960, a 32.1% premium to the last close price.
- The offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and the special committee’s requested price. It is unattractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.
- The offer is unequivocally light. The setup has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder.
Metaplanet (3350) – 50% Dilution or 50% Accretion?
- Metaplanet raises JPY 205bn via discounted share issue, doubling Bitcoin holdings to ~32,000 BTC and reframing investor focus toward Bitcoin-per-share growth.
- Despite 50% dilution, BTC yield per share rises ~50% in Q3, positioning Metaplanet as a structural proxy for digital monetary assets.
- Enhanced balance sheet flexibility should enable a further JPY 125bn raise in Q4, reinforcing the company’s long-term accumulation strategy and premium valuation.
Trial: Bringing Competition to Convenience Stores?
- Trial HD’s acquisition of Seiyu massively expands its interests in and around Tokyo and the discounter has wasted no time rolling out its Trial GO stores in the capital.
- These stores offer fresh food at about half the price of typical convenience stores, thanks to low costs and smart tech, and will rapidly intensify competition.
- If the format is successful, it would disrupt both the city centre supermarket and convenience store chains.
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