Daily Brief Macro: Aaron Brown: Quantitative Risk and more

• Strong economic data last week: New home sales above expectations, GDP growth revised up to 3.8%
• Discussion on the accuracy of economic estimates and its impact on investment decisions
• Economic data suggesting fewer Fed cuts, affecting short term stock market sentiment

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• Miran’s appointment as Fed Governor represents a skilful attempt by the Trump Administration to influence Fed policy
• His first speech betrays his propensity to pivot from a data-based approach to monetary policy to a politically based less flexible and doctrinal view.
• If President Trump gets his way and takes over the Fed, the market can look forward to a dogmatic and doctrinally driven Federal Reserve.

• While elevated valuations and excess equity allocations pose risks to long-term returns, we see no signs of an imminent U.S. equity market top.
• The intermediate bull case is supported by both price and fundamental momentum.
• However, the advance is extended and stock prices could correct at any time.