In today’s briefing:
- BoE Cut Proves Finely Balanced
- CX Daily: Why China’s Banks Are Hunting for Fortunes Stashed Abroad
- “Rigged” & “Scam”?
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation (2h-Jul)
- Asian Equities: Cyclical Patterns and Sector/Market Rotations Tell Us Where to Look Next
- Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 31/07/2025
BoE Cut Proves Finely Balanced
- Four MPC members refused to back the rate cut in August, and only one favoured a 50bp cut, but he was forced to vote for a 25bp cut to break the balanced 4:4 split.
- The group favouring a slower pace of easing may have expanded from 5:4 to 6:3, raising the hurdle to another cut. Four don’t even support the prevailing level.
- Inflation forecast revisions keep trending the profile higher. Rolling resilience in the broader data should keep the BoE on hold in November and beyond, like the ECB.
CX Daily: Why China’s Banks Are Hunting for Fortunes Stashed Abroad
- Banks / In Depth: Why China’s banks are hunting for fortunes stashed abroad
- Quant /Exclusive: DeepSeek-linked quant fund caught up in kickback scandal
- Lending /: Banks gear up for Beijing’s subsidized lending campaign
“Rigged” & “Scam”?
- The July jobs figure, routine revisions to prior months and the abrupt removal of the BLS commissioner made headlines for various reasons
- The data from the payroll or establishment survey seems to convey a more dour cyclical signal
- But the overall US labor market information from various sources implies more intricate interactions at this time
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation (2h-Jul)
- Inflation in the second half of July stood at 0.07% biweekly, which allowed the annual rate to decline to 3.48%. This movement is mainly attributed to a base effect.
- For this period, market consensus was at 0.10% biweekly, and our estimate was 0.11% biweekly.
- The observed figure was lower than expected due to reduced pressures in both core and non-core components. Each of these contributed 2 basis points to our forecast error.
Asian Equities: Cyclical Patterns and Sector/Market Rotations Tell Us Where to Look Next
- Our analysis of quarterly returns of each Asian market and each of the sectors within them shows clear cyclical patterns of performance, driven, we believe, by market/sector rotation by investors.
- These cyclical patterns indicate that in the near-term, investors could rotate out of onshore China, India, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand and rotate into Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia and Philippines.
- Korean Technology, Financials and Industrials, Hong Kong Energy, Communications and Technology Services, and Malaysian and Philippines Industrial Services are the secularly outperforming sectors among these likely beneficiary sectors.
Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 31/07/2025
- The international developer, manufacturer and distributor of high quality and effective rapid tests, wins a new Master Service Agreement (MSA) contract.
- The expected value is around $2.5m and is with a global pharmaceutical company for the development and regulatory approval of a companion diagnostic lateral flow point of care test.
- The project is expected to take approximately 24 months and covers the feasibility, optimisation, scale-up, technical transfer and manufacturing of the completed product alongside comprehensive regulatory support.
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