In today’s briefing:
- BoE Still Seeking Evidence
- Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market
- CX Daily: How Labubu Became a Monster of a Business
- Cancellation of Existing Treasury Shares in Korea – Government Likely to Provide a GRACE PERIOD
- We’re Off to See the Wizard of Fed
- Norway: 25bp Rate Cut To 4.25% (Consensus 4.5%) in Jun-25
- Philippines: 25bp Rate Cut to 5.25% (Consensus 5.25%) in Jun-25
- SNB: 25bp Rate Cut To 0.0% (Consensus 0.0%) in Jun-25
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 20 June 2025
- [ETP 2025/25] WTI Wavers on Israel-Iran Tensions, While Henry Hub Rebounds on Demand Revival
BoE Still Seeking Evidence
- Guidance around an unsurprisingly unchanged BoE rate preserved the necessary uncertainty about when it might ease again, albeit with a broad bias to do more later.
- Dave Ramsden joined the dovish dissent, taking it to three for a 25bp cut, but none of them are in the MPC majority revealed in May as leaning towards a slower pace of cuts.
- We believe the August decision remains finely balanced for the majority. Ongoing data resilience, discouraging the Fed and ECB from easing, should also keep the BoE on hold.
Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market
- Chinese copper inventories have dropped to 15-year seasonal lows, with SHFE stockpiles plunging 60% in April — the sharpest decline on record.
- This signals intense physical market tightness, driven by strong demand and smelter cutbacks.
- The trend is reinforcing bullish sentiment, tightening global balances, and spurring strategic moves across the copper supply chain.
CX Daily: How Labubu Became a Monster of a Business
- Labubu / In Depth: How Labubu became a monster of a business
- Rare earth /: Japan’s business leaders call on China to streamline rare earth export rules as delays hit supply chains
- British Columbia /: British Columbia moves to diversify trade to rebalance economy
Cancellation of Existing Treasury Shares in Korea – Government Likely to Provide a GRACE PERIOD
- The Korean government may not force the listed companies to suddenly cancel all their treasury shares all at once.
- Rather, a GRACE PERIOD is likely to be given for companies with existing treasury shares by which they need to cancel them.
- Going forward, the Korean government is likely to decide to allow acquisition new of treasury stocks only when the purpose is to cancel them, excluding bonus payments or stock compensation.
We’re Off to See the Wizard of Fed
- The Fed will remain tethered to the movements in the treasury market regardless of its inflation and employment mandates; otherwise, it risks larger economic problems.
- U.S. Treasury yields are expected to rise due to declining demand and surging supply, regardless of the Fed’s policies.
- Rising US debt levels are now self-fulfilling as new debt is issued to pay rising interest costs.
Norway: 25bp Rate Cut To 4.25% (Consensus 4.5%) in Jun-25
- The Norges Bank unexpectedly reduced its policy rate to 4.25%, defying consensus expectations for a hold, citing a faster-than-anticipated decline in underlying inflation and increased economic slack.
- The Committee signalled that, if the economy develops as projected, further gradual rate cuts are likely in 2025, but emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation is sustainably on target.
- Future rate decisions will be highly data-dependent, with the Committee closely monitoring domestic wage and price dynamics, labour market conditions, and external risks such as geopolitical tensions and global trade policy uncertainty.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Philippines: 25bp Rate Cut to 5.25% (Consensus 5.25%) in Jun-25
- The Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas (BSP) reduced its Target RRP Rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, a move that aligned with consensus forecasts and was prompted by a sharply lower inflation outlook for 2025.
- The decision reflects growing concerns over a global economic slowdown, persistent US trade policy uncertainty, and a widening domestic output gap, all of which argue for a more accommodative monetary stance.
- Future rate decisions will hinge on inflation dynamics, external policy shifts—especially from the US Federal Reserve—and the effectiveness of monetary easing in supporting domestic growth without compromising price stability
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
SNB: 25bp Rate Cut To 0.0% (Consensus 0.0%) in Jun-25
- The SNB lowered its policy rate to 0% as expected, responding to declining inflation and subdued price pressures, with the latest forecasts indicating inflation will remain well within the price stability range through 2027.
- The SNB’s guidance remains cautious, highlighting global trade tensions, external risks, and persistent uncertainties as key factors shaping the interest rate outlook.
- Future policy decisions will be data-driven, with the SNB prepared to adjust rates further or intervene in currency markets if inflation deviates from target or if external shocks intensify.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 20 June 2025
US interest rate cuts expected soon as economic data deteriorates across sectors.
Indonesia delays rate cuts; Philippines eases but risks peso weakness.
China retail sales rise, but property sector continues to underperform.
[ETP 2025/25] WTI Wavers on Israel-Iran Tensions, While Henry Hub Rebounds on Demand Revival
- For the week ending 13/Jun, U.S. crude inventories fell by 11.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.3m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose.
- The EIA reported a 95 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 96 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 6.1% above the five-year average but 7.7% below year-ago levels.
- Bernstein downgrades Shell and upgrades Aramco. Meanwhile, Chevron makes a pivot into U.S. lithium production.
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