In today’s briefing:
- Buy the Dip For the Year-End Rally
- Can the Bulls Survive A “Let Them Eat Cake” Economy?
- Oil futures: Crude higher after drone strike on Black Sea oil hub
Buy the Dip For the Year-End Rally
- The combination of positive price and fundamental momentum points to a rally into year-end.
- Sentiment readings are not extended, which is supportive of a beta performance chase
- There are also early signs of a leadership shift from growth to value, indicating broadening breadth, but that’s not a necessary condition for an additional price advance.
Can the Bulls Survive A “Let Them Eat Cake” Economy?
- The economy is undergoing a K-shaped expansion. While the top-end consumer is doing well, the middle and bottom ends are struggling.
- Equity investors are still enjoying AI-related gains driven by the promise of productivity gains.
- While the employment market appears weak, there are also signs that the jobs market may be improving, which could lift the bottom of the K in 2026.
Oil futures: Crude higher after drone strike on Black Sea oil hub
- Crude oil futures on Friday continued to recover from three-week lows as Russian supply disruptions and broader geopolitical concerns got the better of oversupply fears at least for the day Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.35/b (2015 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.01/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.04/b against a previous close of $59.70/b.
- The latest drone strike from Ukraine targeted the Black Sea export hub of Novorossiysk overnight Thursday.
- Multiple reports, including from Russian and Ukraine media, reported a major blaze at the terminal, suggesting significant disruption in loading crude from the Black Sea hub.
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