In today’s briefing:
- EA: Core Excess Revealed In Sep-25
- HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (September 2025)
- Colombia Holds Rates at 9.25% Amid Inflation Persistence
- Exencial Economy Tidings 01/10/2025
- Oil futures: Crude retreats on mixed signalling from OPEC+
- RBI Holds Rates Amid Trade Headwinds
- Slogans, Propaganda or Actions?
EA: Core Excess Revealed In Sep-25
- Inflation’s break above target to 2.23%, within 1bp of our forecast, came as past energy price falls dropped out to reveal the more resilient underlying pressures.
- Small upside surprises in large countries, like Germany and Italy, were balanced in number and contribution by larger surprises in small ones, like Greece and Estonia.
- We expect less negative payback in October and January, preventing our profile from languishing below the target through 2026, like the consensus view does.
HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (September 2025)
- Hong Kong Alpha portfolio gained 8.45% in September and 60.89% and 62.80% YTD and since launch one year ago. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by more than 40%.
- The portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 3.23 YTD and has generated more than 40% of its returns from stock-picking (alpha). Its beta is low at only 1.17.
- At the end of September, we increased exposure to AI and robotics and sold positions in the consumer and finance sectors.
Colombia Holds Rates at 9.25% Amid Inflation Persistence
- The central bank held rates at 9.25% in a 4-3 split vote, matching consensus expectations but extending the pause cycle to four months amid 5.1% inflation.
- Slower inflation convergence toward 3% target drives caution as service prices remain sticky and analyst expectations rise to 5% for 2025.
- Fiscal deficit widening to 7.1% of GDP and rule suspension through 2027 limits monetary policy flexibility and prolongs the restrictive stance.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Exencial Economy Tidings 01/10/2025
- Bankers Optimistic on Loan Demand and Terms: RBI Lending Survey
- Capacity utilisation declines to 74.1% in Q1FY26: RBI OBICUS survey
- New project announcements fall to Rs.5.2 trillion in September 2025 quarter
Oil futures: Crude retreats on mixed signalling from OPEC+
- Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Crude oil futures were drifting lower Wednesday, extending the heavy losses in the early part of the week amid growing concerns that markets could face a significant supply glut in Q4.
- Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.54/b (2000 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $66.03/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $61.97/b against a previous close of $62.37/b.
- Benchmarks came under pressure after Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that OPEC+ is considering an accelerated schedule on unwinding a second tranche of production cuts, which could fast-track the return of around 1.5 million bpd in just three months.
RBI Holds Rates Amid Trade Headwinds
- The RBI held its repo rate at 5.5%, unanimously keeping a neutral stance as the committee assesses the impact of prior cuts amid an improved inflation outlook.
- Inflation projections were slashed to 2.6% from 3.1%, driven by GST reforms and benign food prices, creating policy space despite growth risks from 50% US tariffs.
- Domestic demand raised the growth forecast to 6.8%, but H2 FY26 faces headwinds from trade tensions. The MPC adopts a wait-and-see approach before its next move.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Slogans, Propaganda or Actions?
- It is imperative to closely monitor the China economy in the current environment
- My China Monthly Alternative Growth (CMAG) gauge provides a timely assessment of the aggregate economy
- The CMAG is currently tracking below average in August, all else equal, with early indications of additional sogginess going forward
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