In today’s briefing:
- EA: Sticky Summer Inflation
- HEW: Atlantic Jobs Divide
- CX Daily: China’s Politburo Strikes Cautious Tone on Economy
- [ETP 2025/31] WTI Climbs While Henry Hub Swings; Shell Beat Estimates; Aramco Bets on AI
EA: Sticky Summer Inflation
- The ECB’s victory party can continue for another month, as inflation proved surprisingly sticky at the target. But the hangover is disappointing, amid broad-based upside news.
- Two-thirds of national outcomes exceeded our expectations, with a slight skew higher, and pressures concentrated in services. Seasonal travel parts would be payback-prone.
- Another upside surprise to the ECB’s forecast makes the profile likely to shift higher in September. The news is the opposite of what is needed for another rate cut.
HEW: Atlantic Jobs Divide
- Depressing revisions to US payroll data clash with the resilience seen in other data, and compare poorly with the bullish revisions to the Euro area’s labour market.
- Jobs data challenge the Fed’s patient posture, while the Euro area’s sticky inflation and tighter labour markets should encourage it to keep rolling rate cuts later.
- Thursday’s BoE decision sets unemployment’s rise against inflation persistence, leaving the outcome uncertain, yet it is likely to yield another split vote for a rate cut.
CX Daily: China’s Politburo Strikes Cautious Tone on Economy
- TOP STORIES Policy / China’s Politburo strikes cautious tone on economy, signals flexible policy for second half At a Wednesday Politburo meeting, China’s top policymakers signaled a two-pronged economic strategy — maintaining policy stability while preparing for timely interventions.
- The meeting came as China set the agenda for the Communist Party’s Fourth Plenary Session in October, which will focus on setting the 15th Five-Year Plan.
- While acknowledging the economy’s steady performance — with growth holding above 5% for three consecutive quarters — the Politburo cautioned against emerging risks.
[ETP 2025/31] WTI Climbs While Henry Hub Swings; Shell Beat Estimates; Aramco Bets on AI
- WTI crude prices are on the way to close the week higher, supported by trade optimism, better economic data from the U.S., and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- U.S. natural gas slips as mild weather, strong production, and unclear short-term demand weigh on prices.
- Chevron adds John Hess to its board after merger approval; Shell tops Q2 estimates; Aramco partners with Cloudera to bring AI to energy.
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