Daily BriefsMacro

Daily Brief Macro: [ETP 2025/04] WTI Falls on Trump’s Push for Higher Oil Output and more

In today’s briefing:

  • [ETP 2025/04] WTI Falls on Trump’s Push for Higher Oil Output, Henry Hub Climbs on Colder Forecasts
  • Regional Economics: Navigating the Minefield of Economic Risks
  • CX Daily: Venture Capital in China Flounders as State Takes Over (Part 2)
  • Japan: 25bp Rate Hike To 0.5% (Consensus 0.5%) in Jan-25
  • Goodyear Tire To Divest Dunlop In Favor Of Sumitomo Rubber
  • HEW: Realising Policy Divergence


[ETP 2025/04] WTI Falls on Trump’s Push for Higher Oil Output, Henry Hub Climbs on Colder Forecasts

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 17/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.1m barrel decrease. Gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected.
  • U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 223 Bcf for the week ending 17/Jan, missing analyst expectations of a 270 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 0.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • J.P. Morgan, HSBC, TD Cowen, Barclays, and Citigroup raised their 12-month PTs on SLB post its Q4 earnings. Halliburton reported a YoY decline in Q4 revenue and EPS.

Regional Economics: Navigating the Minefield of Economic Risks

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Tighter financial conditions, energy market shocks, and China’s shaky recovery raise the risk that multiple downside factors may converge and amplify each other in 2025.   
  • Emerging Asia’s economic growth and currency stability are at risk as heightened uncertainty hurts export demand, portfolio capital flows and foreign investment.  
  • The region does have the policy space to respond to these risks but this will come at the price of tolerating weaker currencies and slower fiscal consolidation.

CX Daily: Venture Capital in China Flounders as State Takes Over (Part 2)

By Caixin Global

  • Funds / In Depth: Venture Capital in China flounders as state takes over (Part 2)
  • Davos /China will treat foreign and domestic firms equally, Vice Premier tells Davos
  • Insurance /China to pump $13.7 billion of insurance funds into stock markets

Japan: 25bp Rate Hike To 0.5% (Consensus 0.5%) in Jan-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • The BoJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.5%, consistent with market expectations and reflecting a gradual recalibration of monetary policy as inflationary pressures stabilise near 2.5–3.0% in the medium term.
  • Persistent wage growth, yen depreciation, and improving labour market conditions underpin inflation forecasts. However, due to commodity price volatility and exchange rate sensitivity, inflation risks are tilted to the upside.
  • While financial conditions remain accommodative, future rate hikes are likely if inflation expectations and wage-price dynamics sustain alignment with the BoJ’s medium-term stability target of 2%.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Goodyear Tire To Divest Dunlop In Favor Of Sumitomo Rubber

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Transaction valued at around US$701 million in cash proceeds
  • Goodyear to hold ground in Europe until the end of 2025
  • Goodyear joins Dutch research body TNO for crash mitigation

HEW: Realising Policy Divergence

By Phil Rush

  • The chasm between the US and European PMIs compressed, removing this justification for the massive Fed-ECB policy divergence in the price. Ironically, their policies are set to start diverging next week with the ECB cutting while the Fed holds rates.
  • The BOJ hiked while the Norges Bank approached its first cut in March. Meanwhile, UK pay awkwardly surged, but rising unemployment will help justify a cut on 6 February. Sweden, Canada, Chile, Brazil, and Colombia will also announce policy before then.
  • Note: Smartkarma will become the sole distributor of our research in February, so clients should prepare their access now (send queries to transition@smartkarma.com).

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