In today’s briefing:
- HEW: Caution Echoes Outside the BoE
- BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (November 5)
- Big Oil Gained in Q3 as Sanctions and Strikes on Russia Drove Refining Margins Higher
- Oil futures: Crude off lows amid choppy trade, gasoil cracks eyed
- CX Daily: How Corruption Burned Through China’s Firefighting Services
HEW: Caution Echoes Outside the BoE
- The BoE resisted cavalier calls for a rate cut this week, but it is much less cautious than we expected. A December rate cut is now likely, absent significant upside surprises.
- All other central bank announcements this week fit the trend, with cautious holds in Australia, Sweden, Norway, Malaysia and Brazil, and a more careful cut in Mexico.
- Next week’s UK labour market (and GDP) data are one of the few things that could clear the evidential hurdle to block a cut, although we doubt good news will extend that far.
BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (November 5)
- Hong Kong has entered a consolidation stage of its long-term Secular Bull Market. Southbound buying declined in October from an all time high in the previous month.
- Dividend yield and low volatility factors outperformed in October as growth and momentum factors declined.
- The technology and healthcare sectors declined in October, while the energy and utility sectors gained during the month.
Big Oil Gained in Q3 as Sanctions and Strikes on Russia Drove Refining Margins Higher
- Major Western oil giants posted strong Q3 2025 profits as surging refining margins and trading gains offset volatility and sustained production strength.
- Ukrainian strikes and escalating Western sanctions on Russia tightened global product supply, pushing refining margins higher and supporting downstream earnings.
- Refining margins are likely to stay elevated as prolonged sanctions, supply disruptions, and seasonal maintenance sustain tightness despite potential demand headwinds.
Oil futures: Crude off lows amid choppy trade, gasoil cracks eyed
- Crude oil futures drifting amid choppy trade Thursday before regaining some ground after benchmarks broke out of the recent trading range to test two-week lows, although surging gasoil cracks were lending some support.
- Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.45/b (2100 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $63.52/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.54/b against a previous close of $59.60/b.
- Crude retreated midweek as concerns over a supply glut in Q1 continued to weigh on sentiment, with demand growth seen falling well short of fresh supply this year and next.
CX Daily: How Corruption Burned Through China’s Firefighting Services
- In Depth: How Corruption Burned Through China’s Firefighting Services
- To Counter Quantum Threat, Hong Kong Plans Overhaul of Financial Encryption
- Hong Kong Charges 16 in JPEX Fraud as Interpol Hunts Three Fugitives
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