In today’s briefing:
- HEW: Cautious Committees
- The Art of the Trade War: U.S. ON THE HAMSTER WHEEL!
- Rising Domestic Pull And Price Strength Reshape Cambodian Rubber
- When the Boom Bites Back: How a Global LNG Surge Could Reshape U.S. Gas Markets
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 31 Oct 2025
- Oil futures: Crude drifts as US-China talks, OPEC+ eyed
- CX Daily: China’s AI Companions Struggle to Turn Intimacy Into Industry
HEW: Cautious Committees
- Central bankers broadly delivered on expectations this week, while cautioning that changes will likely be less than markets assume. The BOJ and ECB were also cautious.
- Flash EA inflation slowed, as expected, but services and core stoked hawkish pressure, while money and credit data in the EA and UK show accommodation of inflation.
- Next week’s BoE decision is no longer priced as a forgone conclusion, but the case to cut is weak. Like its peers, the BoE should cautiously damp dovish expectations.
The Art of the Trade War: U.S. ON THE HAMSTER WHEEL!
- The much hyped meeting between the presidents of the world’s two largest economies fell short of global expectations. Key issues were only delayed, not resolved.
- China has been steadfast in the face of U.S. hardball tactics, resulting in the U.S. reversal of announced measures, like the expansion of the restricted entity list.
- The effective tariff rate on Chinese exports to the U.S. will be approximately 30%, which is 20% higher than when President Trump took office.
Rising Domestic Pull And Price Strength Reshape Cambodian Rubber
- Export volumes fall, but revenues hold firm on higher prices
- Domestic latex consumption surges 89%, reshaping local demand base
- Chinese investments deepen industrial linkages and energy synergy
When the Boom Bites Back: How a Global LNG Surge Could Reshape U.S. Gas Markets
- Henry Hub prices are rising ahead of a colder U.S. winter, but stronger domestic production and expanding LNG exports could temper the pace of seasonal gains.
- Global LNG capacity is set to soar by 60% by 2030, raising the risk of a supply glut that could depress international gas prices and challenge U.S. competitiveness.
- While global LNG oversupply may pressure prices abroad, surging AI-driven electricity demand and slower renewable deployment could lift domestic gas consumption and keep prices resilient.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 31 Oct 2025
- Bank of Japan (BoJ): BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, despite 3% inflation — a clear policy mismatch.
- Federal Reserve (US): The Fed cut rates despite inflation running above target (≈3.6% annualized).
- China: Industrial profits up 21.6% YoY in September, marking a two-month streak (August: +20.4%).
Oil futures: Crude drifts as US-China talks, OPEC+ eyed
- Crude oil futures were drifting Thursday after benchmarks were given a midweek uplift from inventory data, although focus was pivoting towards the US-China trade talks and upcoming OPEC+ meeting.
- Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.92/b (2014 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $64.92/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.46/b against a previous close of $60.48/b.
- Investors were eyeing the outcome of talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, which were expected to at least reduce tensions in the on-again-off-again trade war.
CX Daily: China’s AI Companions Struggle to Turn Intimacy Into Industry
- AI / Analysis: China’s AI Companions Struggle to Turn Intimacy Into Industry
- China-U.S. /: U.S., China Reach Broad Truce to Ease Trade War
- Trade /: China Expands Pilot Program for Easier Cross-Border Trade Settlements
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