In today’s briefing:
- HEW: Geopolitics Blow Hot And Warm
- [IO Technicals 2025/24] Downward Momentum Lingers
- Korea Politics: Presidential Election Closes Chapter of Chaos
- EU Opens Tire Duty Probe Against China, Straining Trade Environs
- Flash – Middle East FX, June 13th 2025 ,
HEW: Geopolitics Blow Hot And Warm
- Israel’s attack on Iran squeezes supply in an unwelcome shock that is harder for central bankers to look through post-pandemic. Warming US-China relations had less impact.
- Avoidance measures have helped mitigate the tariff shock so far, with US CPI holding steady. The importance of recent disappointing UK demand data is easy to overstate.
- The BoE is set to hold rates, probably with two dovish dissents and no commitment to August. UK inflation should slow with airfares normalising and a vehicle tax correction.
[IO Technicals 2025/24] Downward Momentum Lingers
- The U.S. will impose a 55% tariff on Chinese goods; China responds with 10%, as part of a deal addressing trade and fentanyl concerns.
- China’s steelmakers face pressure as EV price wars cut margins. Platts to lower iron ore spec to 61% in 2026, prompting SGX contract adjustments.
- Prices hold below key moving averages, reflecting downside momentum, while the MACD staying under its signal line supports the ongoing bearish outlook.
Korea Politics: Presidential Election Closes Chapter of Chaos
- Democratic Party nominee Lee Jae-myung won the snap presidential elections triggered by the impeachment of his predecessor, closing a period of governmental instability.
- With unified control of the executive and legislature, Lee will have leeway to pursue looser fiscal policy and some structural reform. But bandwidth is limited by external events.
- Even if policy shifts are constrained, some political calm will do the country much good as it navigates its structural economic challenges and geopolitical quandary.
EU Opens Tire Duty Probe Against China, Straining Trade Environs
- Investigation covers HS codes 40111000 and 40112010
- China criticizes EU protectionism, warns of market impact
- EU tire makers to benefit but consumers may feel the pinch
Flash – Middle East FX, June 13th 2025 ,
- A short word ! Get your priority right ! or go to the easiest ! European large cities, London, Paris are all getting a pretty bad rap in term of security.
- London is a place I know well and much better than Paris.
- I commented at length on personal safety, phone theft, bicycle theft, car theft etc.
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