In today’s briefing:
- HEW: Inflation Persists, But Cuts Loom
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 18 July 2025
- [IO Technicals 2025/29] Near Term Bullish Trend to Persist
- [ETP 2025/29] Chevron Secures Guyana Win as SLB Surprises; WTI Slips, Henry Hub Snaps Losing Streak
- India: More Rate Cuts Likely as Inflation Edges to the Bottom of RBI’s Target Range
- CX Daily: Late Beverage Tycoon’s Secret Children Go to War With Official Heir Over Billions
- BMW Turns to Chinese Smart Driving Expertise to Regain Market Ground
HEW: Inflation Persists, But Cuts Loom
- Persistent upside inflation surprises and sticky wage growth are lifting hawkish market narratives, defying central bank and consensus hopes for a quick return to target.
- UK inflation jumped well above forecast in June, strengthening the hawkish case, while US core inflation shows tariffs adding to excessive underlying price pressures.
- Next week, attention turns to the ECB decision, July flash PMIs, and UK public finances, as markets weigh central banks’ willingness to ignore resurgent inflation.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 18 July 2025
China’s Q2 GDP beat expectations, but nominal growth and the property sector remain weak despite strong exports and monetary support.
Indonesia cut rates again, yet real rates are still too high to boost meaningful growth.
Japan faces political uncertainty with likely election losses, raising concerns over its future role in global currency markets.
[IO Technicals 2025/29] Near Term Bullish Trend to Persist
- Iron ore prices topped $100/ton as Beijing’s push on steel overcapacity and hopes of property support lifted sentiment, alongside tighter inventories fuelling restocking expectations.
- Rio Tinto’s early Simandou shipments from November sparked fresh interest, though RBC sees output reaching just 12 million tons by 2026, ramping up slowly.
- Prices are holding firm above key moving averages, pointing to continued upward momentum, while the MACD above its signal line reinforces the bullish trend.
[ETP 2025/29] Chevron Secures Guyana Win as SLB Surprises; WTI Slips, Henry Hub Snaps Losing Streak
- Chevron’s arbitration win over ExxonMobil unlocks Guyana’s Stabroek Block, a key asset underpinning its USD 53 billion Hess acquisition.
- SLB outperformed Q2 estimates despite YoY declines and also completed its ChampionX acquisition amid regulatory challenges.
- WTI crude found support late-week after better-than-expected economic data tempered demand fears, despite early pressure from inventory and macro concerns.
India: More Rate Cuts Likely as Inflation Edges to the Bottom of RBI’s Target Range
- With CPI inflation at 2.1%YoY in Jun’25, the real policy rate is +3.4% — higher than in Jan’25 (+2.19%) before the 100bp of repo rate cuts.
- Despite a shift to a larger rate cut (accompanied by reductions in CRR), the RBI is still a bit behind the curve. We expect another 100bp of cuts by Feb’26.
- Vegetable deflation will persist through H2CY25, so we expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.9% in FY26, obliging more rate cuts, enabling real GDP growth of 8.5%+ in FY26.
CX Daily: Late Beverage Tycoon’s Secret Children Go to War With Official Heir Over Billions
- Dispute / Late beverage tycoon’s secret children go to war with official heir over billions
- Nvidia /: Nvidia will soon be allowed to resume sales of AI chips to China, CEO says
- AMCs /: China tightens rules for local AMCs to curb risks in bad-debt market
BMW Turns to Chinese Smart Driving Expertise to Regain Market Ground
- As foreign automakers struggle to keep pace in China’s fast-evolving electric vehicle (EV) and smart car market, companies such as BMW are turning to top Chinese tech firms to stay in the race.
- BMW has signed a partnership with autonomous driving startup Momenta to co-develop advanced driver-assistance systems for its next-generation China-built models, which are due to launch in 2026. The deal represents a significant step in BMW’s local adaptation strategy as the German carmaker fights to reclaim its footing in its largest single market.
- Earlier this year, BMW announced collaborations with Huawei Technologies Co.
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