Daily Brief Macro: HEW: Pauses On And Off and more

• Another disappointing payroll release provides the fundamental cover needed for the Fed to end its pause with a rate cut on 17 September without being too political.
• The BoE is starting its own pause, and if it goes a quarter without cutting, historically, it’s not resumed the cycle. Its DMP survey confirmed inflation’s persistent problem.
• Another upside inflation surprise seems set to keep the ECB on hold amid record low unemployment. We also expect it to preserve its view that policy is in a good place.

• Asian gasoline market saw strengthening in mid August, with cracks rebounding to around $10 per barrel
• Demand for non oxygenated low sulphur blend stocks increasing, driven by policy changes in Australia and the Middle East
• Malaysia’s subsidy increase for 95 RON gasoline impacting interron spreads and market volatility, potential challenges in transitioning to Eurofi standard gasoline by 2027

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• Chinese mills eye production restart, boosting iron ore demand, but bloated construction steel inventories threaten to cap price gains.
• Managed money participants increased net long exposure to 134.9k lots last week, with overall futures and options open interest slipping by 11.2%.
• Bullish MA crossover drove prices above short-term averages. However, prices pressing the upper Bollinger band suggest overextension and heightened risk of a near-term pullback.

• Trump’s tariff threats against India have left the latter exposed vis-à-vis the world’s major powers. New Delhi’s geostrategic position is arguably the worst it has been in decades. 
• While it traditionally relied on hedging relationships between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing, ties with the two have become less reliable even as tensions with the third persist. 
• New Delhi’s influence in the South Asian subcontinent has also eroded, and neighbouring countries are increasingly tilting towards Beijing or adopting more neutral postures.

• SR demand in FY 2025 surges 9.3%, outpacing 6.1% rise in output  
• Imports rise nearly 17% YoY to 413,627 tons in FY 2024-25  
• Reclaimed Rubber consumption up 8.55% to 167,500 tons  

• We often talk of people wanting things to be Black and White and being disconcerted when they realise that they are in fact always Grey, but we would extend that metaphor to the full colour spectrum.
• We want things to be clear and bright and in vivid colour, but in fact everything is, well, basically a bit brown, the colour you get when all the other paints are mixed together and thus, to us at least, it represents the current and pervading sense of muddle and confusion.
• Politically, we see Red socialists embracing Green issues as their central policy, while Greens are pursuing Red Marxism (the author James Delingpole wrote a great book about this called ‘Watermelons’ as in Green on the outside, Red on the inside. But we would just merge the two colours and get brown.)

• AI /In Depth: Legal Professionals See a Case for AI, but It’s Not Ironclad
• Malaysia /: Trade Minister Touts Malaysia’s Advantages as a Chip Investment Destination
• Vietnam /: Chinese Firms Shift Gears in Vietnam — From Factory Floors to Storefronts

• Following the £2m fund raise on 4 July 2025 at 0.3p, it’s been a busy two months.
• The announcements in August include a paid contract extension with a global partner, an update on licensing opportunities, and a new Biomarker Discovery service launch.
• Aptamer is a life science Company developing customised affinity binders through its proprietary Optimer platform which enables clients to take new approaches in therapeutics, diagnostics, and research applications.