In today’s briefing:
- HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)
- Bean Rallies on Hope Underpinned by Fragile Fundamentals
- China Mainland Economy – September 17, 2025
- European Small- Scale Shipyards Market – September 12, 2025
- Greek Economy – October 26, 2025
- Oil futures: Crude moves slightly up after US-China truce, OPEC+ eyed
HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)
- The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio’s performance was -2.01% in October versus returns of -0.81 for the benchmark and -3.53 to -8.62 for Hong Kong indexes.
- The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has captured most of the market gains and minimized drawdowns since inception. The portfolio’s outperformance is more than 40% since inception in October 2024.
- At month-end, we reduced materials and healthcare exposure. We had already reduced the tech exposure earlier in the month. We established positions in the utility, textile, and battery sectors.
Bean Rallies on Hope Underpinned by Fragile Fundamentals
- Bean prices have rallied strong in Oct pushing past the 12-month trading range. Hope or Fundamentals?
- China has not purchased any US beans for MY 2025/26. In 2024/25, Chinese buying stalled after May.
- Puzzle is that prices climb despite worsening fundamentals. Are traders pricing in an eventual resolution? What if their hopes are misplaced?
China Mainland Economy – September 17, 2025
- In 2024, China’s economy expanded by 5.0%. Final consumption expenditure contributed 2.2 percentage points to the overall GDP increase, underscoring its central role in economic momentum.
- Capital formation also supported the expansion, adding 1.3 percentage points. From a sectoral perspective, the tertiary industry was the leading contributor, accounting for 2.8 percentage points of the total GDP growth.
- IMF projections call for growth rates of around 3.9% in both years 2025 and 2026.
European Small- Scale Shipyards Market – September 12, 2025
- A shipyard is an industrial facility where vessels are designed, built, maintained, repaired, and upgraded.
- Additionally, the shipbuilding industry has close relationships with sectors such as transport, security, energy, research, and the environment.
- The global shipbuilding market size in 2025 was around c.€132.7 billion and was expected to grow to c.€170.8 billion by 2030 at a 5-year CAGR of c.4.1%.
Greek Economy – October 26, 2025
- In 2025, projections regarding Greek GDP growth remain very high, 2.09% and 2.11% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, according to IMF, OECD and European Commission.
- The increase in prices was under the 2% target, at 1.9% in September 2025, a lot lower than July and August (3.1% and 2.9% respectively).
- The Debt to GDP ratio is expected to decrease in the next years, continuing the past years’ trend and will eventually reach 141.2% in 2026.
Oil futures: Crude moves slightly up after US-China truce, OPEC+ eyed
- Crude futures moved higher in late-Friday trading after this week’s US-China talks were met with a muted response from oil markets, while investors continued to monitor Russian sanctions and the likely outcome of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting.
- Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.07/b (2020 BST) versus Thursday’s settle of $64.37/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.87/b against a previous close of $60.57/b.
- The ‘truce’ between Beijing and Washington was seen as enough to keep global trade ticking over, but in the absence of a long-term solution, analysts said markets are likely to be kept on edge.
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