In today’s briefing:
- How the G7 Meeting Exposes the Risks for 2024
- Weekly Market Monitor – Week 19 Macro Momentum Is Fading, but Market Momentum Is Building.
- Europe Bull 2023 = FANG Bull 2008?
How the G7 Meeting Exposes the Risks for 2024
- The agenda of the G7 highlights the rising risk of a new Cold War 2.0 that decouples China from the West.
- Tensions are likely to rise in 2024 as U.S. electoral politics will encourage both sides to show how tough they are on China.
- Under such a scenario, the global economy would be split into a China bloc and a U.S. bloc that resolves in global stagflation
Weekly Market Monitor – Week 19 Macro Momentum Is Fading, but Market Momentum Is Building.
- AI-Hyped US Equities are not off the hook. The US Leading Indicator dropped for the 13th consecutive month, taking the index further into recessionary territory.
- The rally in Big Tech stocks hides that only just over one-third of NASDAQ stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, the threshold between positive and negative future returns.
- Singapore electronics exports were down a whopping 23.3% year-on-year in April, indicating a severe decline in global earnings-per-share numbers.
Europe Bull 2023 = FANG Bull 2008?
- Stocks staged a relative upside breakout against global stocks from multi-year bases, which makes us bullish on the region.
- An analysis of the region shows that different sources of underlying strength are sustainable into the future.
- The possibility exists that this could be the start of a major bull leg in Europe, much like how the U.S. FANGs led global markets in 2008.
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