In today’s briefing:
- Indonesia Economics: Can We Trust Indonesia’s GDP Statistics?
- OV #37 – From Chips to Ships: Markets Rattle as Trade War Escalates
- RARE EARTH ELEMENTS: China Plays Its AI Trump Card!
Indonesia Economics: Can We Trust Indonesia’s GDP Statistics?
- Indonesia’s GDP smoothness is largely a statistical artefact—particularly the use of imputed data for household consumption—rather than reflecting genuine macroeconomic stability.
- While there is no prima facie case that income levels themselves are overestimated, there is a disconnect between long-run GDP growth and other indicators of demand.
- The questions over data reliability have real-world consequences. Economic policy and investment decisions may be based on weak macroeconomic assumptions.
OV #37 – From Chips to Ships: Markets Rattle as Trade War Escalates
- A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
- Negotiations between the US and China are not going well, to say the least!
- We review the short-term outlook for some of the sectors we focus on.
RARE EARTH ELEMENTS: China Plays Its AI Trump Card!
- China has implemented extensive restrictions on its export of Rare Earth Elements, which will affect critical parts of the AI supply chain including semiconductor equipment and chips, and data centers.
- The restrictions were in response to recent actions by the U.S. to broaden restrictions on semiconductor equipment exports to China and Secretary Bessent’s comments regarding Argentina’s future relationship with China.
- President Trump responded with a social media post threatening a 100% increase in tariffs on Chinese imports and export controls on critical software.
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