In today’s briefing:
- Industrial Metal Prices Melt as Global Recession Fears Heat Up
- EU Watch: At the End of the Day It Is All About Domestic Politics…
- European Deposits: US Turmoil on Tour?
- CX Daily: Five Things to Know About Chinese Trust Firms’ Scramble to Offload Risky Assets
- US Long-End Yields Pause not Reversal
Industrial Metal Prices Melt as Global Recession Fears Heat Up
- The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index has plunged by 14% during the last month, casting an ominous cloud over the much-anticipated soft landing that investors have been hoping for.
- The ongoing decline in commodity prices, down 26% from their peak, now suggests an implied US recession probability of 68%.
- And in our updated US Recession Scoreboard, the recent dip in copper mirrors a somewhat elevated, yet increasing, chance of a US recession.
EU Watch: At the End of the Day It Is All About Domestic Politics…
- Watch out for political fragmentation in the EZ as the economy looks weaker and weaker
- Germany must make the hard choice of lending a helping hand to the peripheral EZ countries or to Herr Müller in Lower Saxony
- Policy measures such as friend shoring and green transition are all welcomed by most as long as the above-mentioned Herr Müller does not get poorer.
European Deposits: US Turmoil on Tour?
- Most analysts seem to conclude that the US banking stress will not spill-over to Europe
- In this analysis we pull back the curtains on movements in both corporate and household deposits in Europe
- And we find worrying trends in European banks which could intensify issues in coming months
CX Daily: Five Things to Know About Chinese Trust Firms’ Scramble to Offload Risky Assets
- Trust /: Five things to know about Chinese trust firms’ scramble to offload risky assets
- Personnel /: China appoints vice foreign minister as ambassador to U.S.
- Corruption /: Jilin Province Trust’s former chairman sentenced to 14 years in prison
US Long-End Yields Pause not Reversal
- The long-end bond price rallied on Tuesday and early Wednesday, indicating a potential fall pause at the critical support.
- Additionally, AUSDUD followed NZDUSD’s decline, was impulsive, and the AUDUSD broke the H&S neckline.
- It’s uncommon for higher US long-end yields and lower AUDUSD to go in different directions unless it’s due to pure short-end yield differential, which is unlikely.
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