In today’s briefing:
- Japan Macro: Restarting Coverage
- HEW: Cautious Cuts Through The West
- [IO Technicals 2025/38] Slumping Steel Margins and Rising Stockpiles Weigh on Iron Ore
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 19 September 2025
- BOJ Policy Shift Despite Rate Hold
- BoJ: Do Not Be Misled by Dissent Votes
- Dialling down the Noise
- CX Daily: Video Game Studios Bank on AI Future
Japan Macro: Restarting Coverage
- Bank of Japan likely to remain on hold till January 2026 with risk of further delay
- Once BoJ resumes hiking cycle, it will likely follow twice a year pace till 1.5%
- With the Fed cutting rates, the long end of the JGB curve is firmly anchored
HEW: Cautious Cuts Through The West
- Economic data releases revealed more resilience in labour markets than feared, while inflation remained high. Yet Western central banks broadly cut rates, albeit cautiously.
- The BoE’s caution left only two dovish dissents to its on-hold decision, while it cut QT by £30bn to £70bn to reduce the likelihood of gilt market indigestion.
- Next week’s SNB and Riksbank decisions should join the BoE in holding steady, although they have already cut much further. Flash PMIs are the data focus in a thin calendar.
[IO Technicals 2025/38] Slumping Steel Margins and Rising Stockpiles Weigh on Iron Ore
- Iron ore fell as weakening Chinese economic activity, shrinking steel demand, and rising mill maintenance dampened production and demand outlook.
- Managed Money participants continue to increase their net long exposure, signalling renewed bullish sentiment and expectations of stronger demand and price gains.
- Bearish MACD crossover and Bollinger Bands pullback signal weakening momentum, highlighting growing selling pressure and short-term downside risk.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 19 September 2025
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps, but doubts remain over inflation control and credibility amid excessive US government spending.
The Bank of Japan holds steady as inflation persists, with political transition potentially worsening fiscal and inflation risks.
Fiscal discipline remains stronger in Asia, creating opportunities for emerging market investors while Western governments face looming bond market pressure.
BOJ Policy Shift Despite Rate Hold
- The BOJ held rates at 0.5% with a 7-2 vote. Hawkish dissent from Takata and Tamura voting for 0.75% signals rising tightening pressure within the board.
- Surprise ETF/J-REIT disposal announcement (¥330bn/¥5bn annually) marks a significant normalisation step despite external trade headwinds.
- Core inflation at 2.7% remains above target. Overall, October rate hike expectations rise to 55% after the hawkish tone despite the hold decision.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
BoJ: Do Not Be Misled by Dissent Votes
- A surprise rate hike proposals from two BoJ policy board members
- Governor Ueda and Vice Governor Himino are taking cautious stances incompatible with a hear term rate hike
- January 2026 seems the earliest window for the next hike
Dialling down the Noise
- Traders, Quants and Passive Investors have steadily crowded out most earnings signals for long term investors.
- Quarterly reports won’t be missed, and ironically their ending may help restore the role of fundamental analysis.
- However, narrative trading will simply go elsewhere and developments in AI, options and meme stocks are already creating a new asset class we might call ‘Equity as Crypto’.
CX Daily: Video Game Studios Bank on AI Future
- Gaming / In Depth: Video Game Studios Bank on AI Future
- Service /China Doubles Down on Policy Drive to Boost Service Spending
- Corruption /Peking University Vice President Investigated for Graft
- Banks /Exclusive: Chinese Banks Guided to Help Clear SOE Arrears to Private Firms
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